Poll: Will we see a Triple Crown winner within the next 10 years?
Only 11 horses have won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. The first was Sir Barton in 1919, before the three races were known as the Triple Crown. Eleven years later, Gallant Fox began the Golden Age of the Triple Crown - seven Triple Crown winners in a span of nineteen years. Twenty-five years later there would be another, briefer, Golden Age that would produce three Triple Crowns in a six year span, ending with Affirmed in 1978.
1919 Sir Barton
1930 Gallant Fox
1935 Omaha
1937 War Admiral
1941 Whirlaway
1943 Count Fleet
1946 Assault
1948 Citation
1973 Secretariat
1977 Seattle Slew
1978 Affirmed
Since then, eleven horses have won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, but none were able to complete the Triple Crown with a win in the Belmont Stakes. Seven other horses won two of the three legs, either Derby/Belmont or Preakness/Belmont. The other fourteen years, including 2010 (assuming Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky skip the Belmont, as their trainers have indicated), the three races have had different winners. That’s 32 years, and counting, without a Triple Crown winner.
Loading ... Loading ...2010 Preakness Stakes Recap
Make it 32 years without a Triple Crown winner.
Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver put in a good effort for as long as he could, but just didn’t have enough this time. Outsprinted at the start by First Dude, jockey Calvin Borel found a comfortable spot in the two path just behind First Dude and was content to track that one for the first six furlongs. However, as the field started to bunch leaving the final turn, and Super Saver moved up to engage the leader, he simply ran out of gas. Clearly, Super Saver needed more time to recover after the Kentucky Derby, but when you’re the Derby winner you go on to the Preakness, ready or not. Trainer Todd Pletcher said after the race, “Coming off a huge effort in the Derby, the two weeks was too short.”
The two week layoff wasn’t too short for Lookin at Lucky. Sent off as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, he endured a troubled trip and did well to finish sixth. This time, it was Lookin at Lucky who benefited from the perfect trip. Breaking well under new jockey Martin Garcia, who quickly guided him to the two path to save ground around the first turn, Lookin at Lucky raced in sixth down the backstretch, angled out for clear running room and moved up four wide around the final turn to draw even with the leaders (First Dude and Caracortado) entering the stretch and outfinished a dead game First Dude to win by three-quarters of a length. Lookin at Lucky’s final time of 1:55.47 was only two-fifths of a second slower than Rachel Alexandra’s winning time last year and earned him a Beyer Speed Figure of 102.
First Dude ran an awesome race. Breaking from post position eleven, he quickly took the lead and made all the pace, setting fast fractions of :22.91, :46.47 and 1:11.22. When collared by Lookin at Lucky at the top of the stretch, First Dude never backed down. Lookin at Lucky took a short lead in midstretch, but First Dude battled back, and may have even stuck a nose back in front, before yielding late to lose by only three-quarters of a length.
Also running big races were the third and fourth place finishers, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist. Jackson Bend ran in tandem with Super Saver for the first six furlongs chasing pacesetter First Dude through rapid fractions. Whereas Super Saver faded to eighth, Jackson Bend continued to fight on, getting within a head of First Dude and only losing the race itself by less than a length. Yawanna Twist was steadied a couple of times early, but was in good position in the stretch and actually moved into third ahead of Jackson Bend when that one was caught in traffic, but could not sustain his bid to the wire and ended up a length behind Jackson Bend.
Finally, what can be said about Dublin? The starting gate opens and everyone takes off down the stretch, except for Dublin, who, for some reason, makes a sharp turn to the right, scattering the outriders stationed along the rail, before correcting course and joining the race. That little stunt left Dublin in last, five lengths behind Aikenite running in eleventh, and a full eighteen lengths behind the leaders. Dublin stayed in last, and hugged the rail to save ground, for the first six furlongs before swinging out five wide into the stretch and closed well to lose by only six lengths. Much like with Ice Box in the Kentucky Derby, it’s easy to wonder if a better trip might have resulted in a visit to the winner’s circle for Dublin.
2010 Preakness Stakes Analysis
So who do you like, the horses exiting the Kentucky Derby or the new shooters who bypassed the Derby?
I’m not sure I like any of them.
At first glance, the Preakness winner should be either the Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, or the Kentucky Derby favorite, Lookin at Lucky. Unfortunately, neither inspires a lot of confidence, especially given that they’ll both be 5-2 or less. As for the horses that didn’t race in the Derby, keep in mind that they didn’t skip it voluntarily – they weren’t good enough to make the 20 horse Derby field. Read that again – they didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby because there were 20 horses that were more accomplished than them. They haven’t gotten any better over the past two weeks.
OK, someone’s got to win, so let’s take a look at the field and see if we can find someone to support:
HORSES EXITING THE KENTUCKY DERBY
SUPER SAVER (Pletcher/Borel)
PRO: Won the Kentucky Derby. That’s a good thing, right?
CON: Received perfect trip in Derby. It’s pretty lucky to have zero traffic in a 20 horse field. Wasn’t exactly flying down the stretch in Derby.
BRIS Late Pace Par for Kentucky Derby: 102
Super Saver’s Late Pace: 86
Everything went his way in the Derby. Part of that was luck, part was Calvin Borel. He still has Borel. We’ll see if gets/needs the luck.
PADDY O’PRADO (Romans/Desormeaux)
PRO: Finished 3rd in Kentucky Derby.
CON: Has never raced on dry dirt.
I think he’s a turf horse who benefited from the wet track at Churchill Downs. I don’t see him running as well on a fast Pimlico strip.
LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Baffert/Garcia, M)
PRO: Favorite in Derby for a reason. Most accomplished runner coming in. Finished 6th despite lots of trouble. Ran well on dry dirt in Rebel.
CON: Always seems to find trouble. Gets a new jockey for the first time.
If he breaks from post 7 two weeks ago instead of post 1, is he the Derby champ? If you think so, then he’s your bet here.
DUBLIN (Lukas/Gomez)
PRO: Switches to a highly motivated top jockey. May improve on dry dirt. Sire won this race five years ago.
CON: Hasn’t won since September. Post 12 isn’t helpful.
Gomez picks up the mount after getting booted off Lookin at Lucky.
HORSES WHO MISSED THE KENTUCKY DERBY
AIKENITE (Pletcher/Castellano)
PRO: Last race was best of career, closing from last to get second.
CON: One career victory.
Derby Trial was career best Beyer. Will need to make another big step forward.
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS (Ryan/Coa)
PRO: Beat Super Saver in Tampa Bay Derby. Sharp workouts.
CON: Took a step backwards in Wood Memorial.
Two decent races at Tampa Bay Downs, but didn’t build on that in the Wood Memorial.
PLEASANT PRINCE (Ward/Leparoux)
PRO: Missed by a nose to Ice Box in Florida Derby. Bullet workout on Sunday.
CON: One career victory. Two disappointing races since Florida Derby.
I’m trying to find a way to excuse his last two races. He didn’t like the mud in the Derby Trial? Maybe so. He didn’t like the Polytrack in the Blue Grass? He certainly seems to like it in the morning - he breezed 5f in 59 flat a few days ago.
NORTHERN GIANT (Lukas/Thompson)
PRO: Finished in the money in Risen Star and Lane’s End.
CON: Low Beyers. Took six tries to break maiden.
I can’t see what he’s doing in here.
YAWANNA TWIST (Dutrow/Prado)
PRO: Only four career races means could still show big improvement.
CON: May be better suited to sprints.
Don’t like that he couldn’t stick with American Lion through slow fractions in the Illinois Derby.
JACKSON BEND (Zito/Smith, M)
PRO: 1st or 2nd in all 9 career races before Kentucky Derby.
CON: May be better suited to sprints.
Second twice to Eskendereya, but never close. 100 Beyer last October may be a fluke.
CARACORTADO (Machowksy/Atkinson)
PRO: Ran a big race to win Lewis in Feb. Been working well at Santa Anita.
CON: Ran worse each of next two starts.
FIRST DUDE (Romans/Dominguez)
PRO: A couple of good workouts at Churchill Downs.
CON: Only has a maiden win. Highest career Beyer is 90.
What has he accomplished? Why should we believe he’ll be 15 points faster today?
Thoroughbred Report Preakness Stakes Picks:
DUBLIN
LOOKIN AT LUCKY
SUPER SAVER
I’ll also use Pleasant Prince in the exotics, and on top as a saver, just on a hunch.
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