2008 Preakness Stakes Analysis and Picks

May 17, 2008 by
Filed under: Handicapping, Triple Crown 

Really?  You’re looking for a Preakness analysis? OK, here it is:  Big Brown is much the best horse in the field and can win the Preakness even without running his best race.  So he’s a lock, right?  Probably, but there are a million ways for a horse to lose a race – so don’t bet the ranch on it. 

If you do want to bet on the race (and you know you do), you certainly don’t want to risk your money on Big Brown for a paltry 1-2 or worse.  We’re going to need some high priced horses to follow him across the wire in order for us to make a few bucks.

#8 Kentucky Bear (15-1) – Lightly raced runner won big in his debut in January.  Showed little facing Grade 2 company in his second start, but ran well to finished third in the Blue Grass.  Very nice works at Churchill prior to the Derby, but insufficient graded earnings kept him from making the Derby field.  Eligible to improve in just his fourth career start.

#3 Icabad Crane (30-1) – His win in the Frederico Tesio Stakes last out makes him the only horse in the field with a win over the Pimlico strip.  Ability to sit mid-pack and make a strong closing move should suit him well.

#10 Riley Tucker (30-1) – Pressed a fast pace in the Lexington but held well for third.  Pace upfront shouldn’t be quite so hot today and, if he’s able to rate off the leaders, he should be a little stronger in the stretch this time.

#11 Giant Moon (30-1) – His Wood Memorial left him only two lengths behind Tale of Ekati, who went on to finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby.  Has been working well since the Wood and is bred to run all day.

Preakness Wager

For the Big Brown believers:

$10 Exacta Key – Big Brown (#7) over 3,8,10,11 = $40
$3 Tri Key – Big Brown (#7) over 3,8,10,11 = $36
$1 Super Key – 7 over 3,8,10,11 = $24

Total:  $100

What if Big Brown wakes up on Saturday and decides he just doesn’t feel like running today?  I believe that if Big Brown doesn’t win, it will mean something went very wrong and he probably wouldn’t even finish in the money.  If that’s the case, the exotic payouts would be astronomical. 

So, for you non-believers (and starry-eyed dreamers):

$2 Exacta Box – 3,8,10,11 = $24
$2 Trifecta Box – 3,8,10,11 = $48
$1 Superfecta Box – 3,8,10,11 = $24

Total:  $96

Good luck and have fun!


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