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2007 Belmont Stakes Recap

On June 9th at Belmont Park, at approximately 6:29pm, the starters loaded the field into the starting gate for the 139th running of the Belmont Stakes. But when the gates opened, the race seemed more like the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (also a mile and a half race at Belmont Park, but run on the grass in the fall) than the final leg of the Triple Crown. In a typical Belmont Stakes, the leaders will average about 24 1/5 seconds for the first four quarters and then those runners with any energy left will roll down the stretch in about 51 3/5 seconds. This year, it was run more like a turf race, with the leaders showing no speed for the first mile and then the field making a mad dash for the finish line.

Check out the table below to see the average split times for the Belmont Stakes from 2001-2006, last year's Turf Classic and this year's Belmont Stakes:

Running split times more in line with the 2006 Turf Classic than the typical Belmont Stakes, the leaders strolled through the first mile in 25 second quarters and then, in a thrilling stretch duel, Rags to Riches and Curlin streaked home in 48 2/5 seconds to produce one of the most exciting finishes in Belmont Stakes history.

It certainly didn't have to happen that way. As I discussed in my pre-race analysis, this was the perfect opportunity for Hard Spun to use his natural speed to take control of the race. Hard Spun could have easily set a reasonable pace of 1:38 or so for the mile and been relaxed on an easy lead with plenty left in the tank for the stretch run. Instead, Hard Spun was wrangled back early and C P West was allowed to stroll through a mile in 1:40 1/5. Hard Spun wasted so much energy fighting jockey Garrett Gomez early that he had nothing left in the final quarter mile of the race.

Not that I'm complaining.

While it could have been a much different outcome with a faster early pace, the actual result was spectacular. Turning into the stretch, there were four horses across the track: from the rail out it was race leader C P West, Curlin, Hard Spun and Rags to Riches. In an instant, C P West and Hard Spun seemingly disappeared and it was the filly Rags to Riches with the lead on the outside and Preakness winner Curlin running stride for stride to her inside. In midstretch, Rags to Riches moved a half length ahead only to have Curlin come right back at her. Even as they neared the wire, the result was in doubt. As determined as Rags to Riches was, Curlin was her equal. As it turned out, the race was won at the top of the stretch when Rags to Riches got the jump on Curlin turning for home. Curlin was never able to make a dent in her modest lead.

From the moment Rags to Riches took that lead at the top of the stretch, the crowd of 46,870 responded as if they knew they were seeing history being made. And they were. The last time a filly won the Belmont Stakes was the 39th running in 1905 when Tanya won the then mile and one quarter race. Since then, only a few of racing's very best fillies have run in the Belmont Stakes. The most recent were Silverbulletday in 1999 (finished 7th) and My Flag in 1996 (finished 3rd). Before that there were the legendary Kentucky Derby winning fillies Winning Colors in 1988 (finished 6th) and Genuine Risk in 1980 (finished 2nd). All great fillies. All failed to win the Test of Champions.

As the horses crossed the finish line and it became clear that Rags to Riches had won the Belmont Stakes, the crowd was electric. The victory clearly resonated with the fans at Belmont Park that day on a very emotional level. We had witnessed something very special. It wasn't about exactas or pick-6's. It was thoroughbred horse racing at it's very best. It was art.

I don't know what trainer Todd Pletcher has in mind for Rags to Riches for the remainder of the year. Most likely she'll return to facing her own sex in the Coaching Club American Oaks at Belmont and/or the Alabama at Saratoga. But later this fall, instead of the Gazelle or Beldame, maybe Pletcher will take a look at the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. After all, Rags to Riches has already shown she knows how to win it.

2007 Belmont Stakes Analysis

This time the race goes through Hard Spun.

In the Kentucky Derby he battled a slew of other front-runners into submission only to have Street Sense ride a perfect trip past him in the stretch. Despite doing all of the heavy lifting early, he ran on to finish second - ahead of eighteen other horses.

In the Preakness he tried to sit off the early speed only to be forced to the lead too soon when his running position deteriorated. Once again having to contend with other early speed left him without the reserves necessary to hold off Street Sense and eventual race winner Curlin. Still, he was tenacious in the stretch for a third place finish.

In both races his natural early speed was his downfall. There was no way he was going to be able to battle multiple runners with speed early and outrun the closers late. In spite of his disadvantageous running style, he showed courage both times and finshed strongly.

This time, in the Belmont Stakes, his running style will finally be to his advantage. There are no other horses in this race with enough speed to pressure him early. Slew's Tizzy is the only other horse with any interest in being forwardly placed but does not possess the high cruising speed of Hard Spun. The challenge will be for new jockey Garrett Gomez to get Hard Spun relaxed and happy at the front of the pack, or just off of Slew's Tizzy, and to ease him through the first half of the race without taking too much out of him. If he succeeds, Hard Spun should be hard to catch in the stretch.

Hard, but not impossible.

Curlin was a bear coming home in the Preakness and, given that he still has only raced five times in his career, we may not have seen his best yet. I expect Curlin to sit midpack, with Rags to Riches, and to try to get an early jump on Hard Spun coming out of the far turn. After seeing him run down Street Sense three weeks ago, I can't help but believe he'll find a way to reel in Hard Spun by the time they reach the wire.

Sired by 1992 Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy, the Todd Pletcher trained filly Rags to Riches is certainly bred to handle the distance. The winner of three straight Grade 1 races against fillies, the last two with consumate ease, Rags to Riches will likely get a perfect stalking position on the outside. Should the top two runners take a step back after two tough races, this fresh, talented filly could be there at the end to give Pletcher his first classic victory.

Thoroughbred Report Picks:

1st: #3 Curlin
2nd: #6 Hard Spun

Final note: If the track comes up sloppy or muddy, the advantage would switch to Hard Spun.

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2007 Belmont Stakes Field

139th Belmont Stakes
Saturday June 9th, 2007
Belmont Park, Elmont, NY
Probable Post: 6:25pm

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2007 Preakness Stakes Recap

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Curlin wins the 132nd Preakness Stakes
[Story] [Chart] [Video]

A roar went up as the horses were loaded into the starting gate for the 132nd Preakness Stakes and, standing in section TT at the end of the grandstand, I had a moment of concern that the cheering was so loud that the noise would cause the horses to bolt. However, as loud as it was at the start of the race, that sound paled in comparison to the deafening roar of approval from the record crowd of 121,263 not much more than a minute later as the horses raced down the stretch to the finish line.

At first the roar was for seeing Street Sense take control in the stretch and to seemingly capture the second leg of the Triple Crown. Then the roar grew as we saw a determined Curlin begin to reel in the Kentucky Derby winner and, as they approached the finish line, first draw even and then in the final stride get a head in front as they crossed the wire.

It was an exciting race and a stirring finish. The final time of 1:53 2/5 equalled the Preakness Stakes record set by Tank's Prospect in 1985 and matched by Louis Quatorze in 1996. (What about Secretariat, you ask? His official time is recorded as 1:54 2/5, although that time is disputed. Daily Racing Form clockers in the press box and a review of the videotape support a winning time of 1:53 2/5 - the same as Curlin and the other two co-holders of the record). Both Curlin and runner-up Street Sense received 111 Beyer Speed Figures. Street Sense earned a 110 for his win in the Kentucky Derby.

How the race was run

As expected, Xchanger and Flying First Class were burned out battling for the early lead and finished at the back of the pack.

Hard Spun was perfectly placed three lengths behind the front-runners through the first half mile. When jockey Mario Pino felt C P West gaining ground to his outside he chose to make his move then rather than risk being trapped inside behind the tiring leaders and the impending moves from the closers. Hard Spun easily took command into the far turn and led the field to the top of the stretch. While he was no match for the top two finishers, Hard Spun did stay on well to finish third, only four lengths behind.

There has been some criticism of Pino's ride and, in fact, owner Rick Porter and trainer Larry Jones have decided to switch to Garrett Gomez for the Belmont Stakes. I don't think the criticism is justified. Pino was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. If he doesn't move, he gets trapped on the rail behind the rapidly decelerating leaders with the rest of the field moving past him on the outside and he probably finishes worse than third. And gets criticised even more for not moving soon enough. A jockey's life is a hard life for sure. The truth is that Hard Spun was no match for the top two and finished as well as could be expected.

Street Sense ran as close to a perfect race as you can and still not win. Once again he dropped back early, rated patiently for three-quarters of a mile, then made a bold move between horses coming out of the final turn and drew away to a clear lead in midstretch. Unfortunately, according to jockey Calvin Borel, he "got to gawking 40 yards from home and he just got outrun." I believe that's cajun-speak for "he stopped paying attention to what he was doing and let the other horse catch him". Despite the mental lapse at the end, it was a strong follow-up performance to his Kentucky Derby win.

If anything, Curlin "out-Street Sensed" Street Sense. I expected Curlin to sit fourth or fifth, get the first move on Hard Spun in the stretch and have to fight off a hard closing Street Sense. Courtesy of a stumble out of the gate, Curlin ended up at the back of the pack just a couple of lengths ahead of Street Sense. While Curlin remained unhurried through six furlongs, it was Street Sense who made the first move on Hard Spun and took the lead in the stretch and it was a hard-charging Curlin that was running best of all at the end to run down Street Sense at the wire.

Anyone else run well?

Um, no.

I was most disappointed in Circular Quay who I expected to show a closing kick more in line with his resounding victory in the Louisiana Derby. Instead we got the same lackluster finish as in the Kentucky Derby. Then again, maybe I'm just bitter because I bet on him.

The rest of the field showed little or nothing.

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2007 Preakness Stakes Analysis and Picks

Yes, Street Sense got 'lucky' in the Kentucky Derby when the rail path magically opened to allow him to save ground and pass the huge Derby field without incident. As fortunate as he was, the fact remains that he was able to make a strong six furlong run from the back of the pack, overcoming a nineteen length deficit to the leaders, and beat the best three-year-olds in the country. For a three-year-old crop that has rarely posted Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) over 100, the 110 BSF earned by Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby clearly labels him as much superior to the rest of this year's class.

While I was very impressed with the race run by Hard Spun in the Derby, I am going to bet against him today. I am expecting there to be more pressure for the early lead this time and feel that will leave him weary in the stretch.

Lightly-raced Curlin picked up quite a bit of seasoning in the Kentucky Derby. A slightly slow start left him farther back in the field than he had ever experienced. Despite this, he showed good composure and was able to pass most of the field to get up for third. Curlin should benefit from a perfect setup in the Preakness, just behind the early leaders, and be poised to take the lead at the top of the stretch. If he moves forward off his Derby experience, he will be the horse to catch down the stretch.

Coming into the Kentucky Derby off an eight week layoff, Louisiana Derby winner Circular Quay dropped to the back of the pack, made a strong middle move and, despite losing a few lengths on the turn, was able to finish well enough to come in sixth - only a length and a quarter out of third place. He should move forward in this second race off the layoff and be a major factor in the stretch.

As for the non-Derby runners, I don't give them much of a chance. I expect Flying First Class and Xchanger to contest the early lead and to be burned out in the process. C P West and Mint Slewlep have yet to show the ability to win a Grade 3 race, let alone a Grade 1, and have no chance to win.

That leaves Todd Pletcher trainee King of the Roxy, a multiple graded stakes winner that has yet to win beyond a mile. He was able to take the lead in the stretch of the nine furlong Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his last start, but he was not able to hold off Tiago in deep stretch. Although I expect him to get a good midpack position in the Preakness, I don't see how he will be any match for serious closers like Street Sense and Circular Quay.

Thoroughbred Report Preakness Wager

The triple should consist of Street Sense, Curlin and Circular Quay - not necessarily in that order.

$5 Exacta Box 3-4-8 = $30
$5 Exacta 8 / 3,4 (Street Sense over Curlin and Circular Quay) = $10
$10 Exacta 8-3 = $10

$5 Triple Box 3-4-8 = $30
$5 Triple 8 / 3,4 / 3,4 = $10
$10 Triple 8-3-4 = $10

Total Wager: $100

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2007 Preakness Field

132nd Preakness Stakes
Saturday May 19th, 2007
Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, MD
Probable Post: 6:15pm

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2007 Kentucky Derby Recap

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Street Sense wins the 133rd Kentucky Derby

Running nearly a carbon copy of his Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory last fall at this same track, Street Sense took back early, started his move on the final turn and, remarkably, once again found an open rail path to shoot through and pass the bulk of the field. It was a visually impressive victory and earned the winner a 110 Beyer Speed Figure - easily the best this year by a three-year-old.

Equally impressive, and perhaps more so, was the race run by Hard Spun. Although early speed in the Derby has not been rewarded in recent years, Hard Spun ran 18 horses off their feet and, with the help of a little bit of traffic along the rail at the top of the stretch, could easily have been the winner of this race.

Coming off a big victory in the Arkansas Derby, the undefeated Curlin was a major contender heading into this race. However, having had only three lifetime races, none as a two-year-old, may have left him too inexperienced to handle such a large field. After never having faced more than eight other runners, Curlin found himself in 13th place after a slow start. He was able to stay patient until the far turn, worked his way through the field and made a good run in the stretch to get third just ahead of several other runners.

Top choices fare well

The top betting choices did quite well this year. The top three finishers, Street Sense (4.9-1), Hard Spun (10-1) and Curlin (5-1), were 1st, 4th and 2nd in the win pool. The third choice by the bettors, Scat Daddy (7.2-1), finished 18th.

Other runners of note

Imawildandcrazyguy was even farther back than Street Sense early. Content to cruise along in last for seven furlongs, he moved between horses on the final turn before swinging out ten wide in the stretch to just miss the show spot by half a length.

Early speed fails again

As I discussed in the Kentucky Derby Preview, horses with a BRIS running style of E, for Early, and runners whose Early Pace (EP) rating from their last prep exceeded the Early Pace par for the Kentucky Derby, did very poorly in the 2005 and 2006 Kentucky Derbies. The 2007 results were very similar:

In 2005, there were four E-Type runners; they finished 7th, 16th, 18th, 20th.
In 2006, there were four E-Type runners; they finished 4th-DH, 16th, 19th, 20th

In 2007, there were five E-Type runners: Storm in May (finished 16th), Hard Spun (2nd), Liquidity (14th), Teuflesberg (17th) and Nobiz Like Shobiz (10th).

In 2005, there were seven Non-E-Type runners with last race EP greater than the Kentucky Derby EP par; they finished 2nd, 10th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 17th, 19th.

In 2006, there were four Non-E-Type runners with last race EP greater than the Kentucky Derby EP par; they finished 8th, 12th, 15th, 17th.

In 2007, there was only one Non-E-Type runner with a last race EP greater than the Kentucky Derby EP par: Any Given Saturday finished 8th.

While this angle did continue to hold in 2007, Hard Spun ran a great race and nearly won setting all of the pace. One difference from the previous two years was the absence of front-running Non-E-Type runners to create more pressure up front. There was only one this year (Any Given Saturday), while there were seven in 2005 and four in 2006.

Miscellaneous Notes:

From the DRF: Street Sense led a 1-2-3 Derby sweep for horses who had their final Derby workouts at Churchill Downs.

split times:

2005 - :22.28 :45.38 1:09.59 1:35.88 2:02.75
2006 - :22.63 :46.07 1:10.88 1:37.02 2:01.36
2007 - :22.96 :46.26 1:11.13 1:37.04 2:02.17

quarter times:

2005 - :22.28 :23.10 :24.21 :26.29 :26.87
2006 - :22.63 :23.44 :24.81 :26.14 :24.34
2007 - :22.96 :23.30 :24.87 :25.91 :25.13

2007 Kentucky Derby Analysis and Picks

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The 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby promises to be a contentious affair between a mostly undistinguished field of twenty. Undistinguished in that these twenty runners have earned a grand total of nine triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) this year. While the lack of gaudy speed figures may mean that there are no real superstars this year, this evenly matched field does provide an interesting handicapping challenge and should be facinating to watch.

On to the handicapping:

Step 1: Eliminate the Early runners

Review the Preview and Recap from last year's Kentucky Derby. Horses with an Early running style have a dismal record in the past two 20-horse Kentucky Derbies. This means that Storm in May, Hard Spun, Liquidity, Teuflesberg and Nobiz Like Shobiz are all at a distinct disadvantage.

Also, eliminate Any Given Saturday as a Non-E-Type runners with last race Early Pace (EP) greater than the Kentucky Derby EP par.

Step 2: Eliminate horses that have not run a BSF of at least 98 this year.

In the past 15 years, only two horses (Giacomo and Sea Hero) have won the Kentucky Derby without having previously earned a BSF of at least 100.

Out: Sedgefield, Zanjero, Imawildandcrazyguy, Bwana Bull, Stormello, Dominican

Step 3: Eliminate horses without a 100+ BRIS Late Pace in their last race.

If you're going to win the Kentucky Derby, you better be running in the stretch.

Out: Sam P. Scat Daddy

Step 4: Miscellaneous Eliminations

Cowtown Cat - Took advantage of a speed bias and slow early fractions to win the Illinois Derby. Seems to want to be forwardly placed but does not possess the quickness to accomplish it against this field.

Tiago - His win in the Santa Anita Derby was also the first time he's crossed the finish line first. (He broke his maiden via DQ.) Negatives: Only a four race career. Could regress after a 16 point BSF jump last race. Running style from the SA Derby would have to overcome large field and sloppy track.

Great Hunter - Post 20. Need I go on? Positives: I am willing to throw out the oddly run Blue Grass Stakes. Although he didn't beat much in the Robert Lewis Stakes, that running style would would have worked nicely here on a fast track. Negatives: Post 20. No bullet works. Will either have to push early to secure position or have to work through the whole field in the slop.

Step 5: Hard Decisions

Curlin - Positives: The only horse with two 100+ BSF races this year. Undefeated. Negatives: Only three career races. Unraced as a two-year-old. Didn't beat much in Arkansas. No bullet works.

Circular Quay - Positives: Two wins and a place at Churchill Downs. Big win with strong stretch run in Louisiana Derby. Negatives: Eight week layoff. Unspectacular works. Will have to come from the back of the pack against a large field in the slop.

Street Sense - Positives: Won BC Juvenile on this track. Good workouts at CD. Should get perfect trip given post position and running style. Negatives: Only two races this year.

Thoroughbred Report Picks:

1st: #7 Street Sense
2nd: #16 Circular Quay

Include in exotics: #2 Curlin, #14 Scat Daddy, #18 Any Given Saturday, #20 Great Hunter

Kentucky Derby Wager

$40 Exacta 7-16 (Street Sense over Circular Quay)
$20 Exacta 16-7

$1 Triple Key 7,16 with 7,16 with 2,14,18,20 = $8
$1 Triple Key 7,16 with 2,14,18,20 with 7,16 = $8

$1 Super Key 7,16 with 7,16 with 2,14,18,20 with 2,14,18,20 = $24

Total Wager: $100

Barbaro Loses Battle

As more and more negative reports came in over the past few weeks, you had to know this day was coming. First the return of laminitus on his left rear hoof. Then the abscess under his right rear hoof. It was more than Barbaro, and his doctors, could handle. It was a valiant effort by his doctors, his owners and, most of all, by Barbaro himself.

Many stories today:

Daily Racing Form

Thoroughbred Times

MSNBC

Chronology of Barbaro's Condition from New Bolton Center.

Share your thoughts on Barbaro in the Discussion Forum

Breeders' Cup Expands

Breeders' Cup, Ltd. announced Monday expansion plans for the Breeders' Cup World Championships consisting of three new $1 million races and three other stakes races funded by the Breeders' Cup. These races will make up a second Breeders' Cup Day, which will be held the Friday before the main event.

The three new $1 million races will be the Dirt Mile, for three-year-olds and up, the Filly & Mare Sprint and the Juvenile Turf. All three will make their debut this year when the Breeders' Cup is run at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. There was no word from the Breeders' Cup or the NTRA on whether these new races will receive graded status. (All of the existing Breeders' Cup races are Grade 1's).

The three other races will be funded by the Breeders' Cup at $250,000 each. They will consist of a mile and one sixteenth dirt mile for three-year-old fillies, a mile turf race for two-year-old fillies and a six furlong sprint for two-year-olds. It is reasonable to assume these races could be elevated to $1 million purses and 'named' status in the future.

What's missing in this expansion is a race for turf sprinters. Turf sprints have become much more common in the U.S. in recent years. The New York Racing Association, in particular, has been writing many more turf sprints than in past years. A Turf Sprint would also help attract more international runners given the number of turf sprints run in Europe.

A solid case can be made for the Dirt Mile. There is a definate need for a race between the six furlong Sprint and the mile and one quarter Classic. Had there been a Dirt Mile in 2006, I'm sure we would have seen Discreet Cat at the Breeders' Cup.

The need for a $1 million Filly & Mare Sprint can be debated. While the Breeders' Cup Sprint is open to both sexes, and has been won by females three times, there were 40 graded sprints on the dirt just for females in 2006, which leads me to conclude this race will be a popular success.

Less compelling is the case for a $1 million race for two-year-olds on the turf, especially at the cost of a Turf Sprint. There were only two graded stakes races for two-year-olds on the turf in 2006 - both at Hollywood Park at the end of November. Conversely, throughout the U.S. there were nine graded sprints on the turf (all Grade 3) in 2006. Hopefully, the Breeders' Cup will correct this oversight in the future.

In any case, this is an exciting announcement from the Breeders' Cup and can only help increase interest in Thoroughbred horse racing.

2006 Belmont Stakes Preview

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My first instinct is that no one can win this race. That's what happens when the Kentucky Derby winner (BARBARO) is standing in a stall in Pennsylvania wearing a cast, the winner of a messed up Preakness Stakes (BERNARDIN) opts for a vacation and top contenders heading into the Derby like SWEETNORTHERNSAINT and BROTHER DEREK head to the sidelines after a tough Triple Crown Trail.

Obviously, someone will win the 138th running of the Belmont Stakes. Will it be a horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness, or a fresh runner?

Let's see if we can figure it out.

Of the Triple Crown veterans, Kentucky Derby runner-up BLUEGRASS CAT has to be considered the most likely threat in the Belmont Stakes. After two sub-par performances, BLUEGRASS CAT benefited from a perfect trip behind BARBARO but was clearly no match for the winner. Without as much early speed in the Belmont, he will have to do much of the heavy lifting himself if he is to improve on his Derby finish.

A couple of lengths behind BLUEGRASS CAT in the Derby, STEPPENWOLFER and JAZIL closed well from far back to get up for third and a dead-heat for fourth. The popular opinion is that since the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one half race, deep closers will have more time to catch the leaders in the long Belmont Park stretch. Unfortunately for STEPPENWOLFER and JAZIL, that's not how this race is won. Both horses will have a good shot at being part of the superfecta, but the winner of the race will be racing much closer to the pace and will have the lead early in the stretch.

The eighth-place finisher in the Derby, DEPUTY GLITTERS, holds the distinction of beating BLUEGRASS CAT in the Tampa Bay Derby. [PHOTOS] Although DEPUTY GLITTERS pre-Derby running style suits this race, he will need to run back to his Tampa Bay Derby victory and take the race to BLUEGRASS CAT to have any chance. If the track comes up wet, he will have no chance and will probably scratch.

BOB AND JOHN, 17th place finisher in the Derby, also has a favorable running style for the Belmont Stakes. The winner of the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, over a sloppy track, BOB AND JOHN will have to duplicate that effort and run an additional three furlongs. Given how slow he finished in the Wood, the added distance may be too much.

The two horses coming out of the Preakness Stakes, HEMINGWAY'S KEY and PLATINUM COUPLE seem hopelessly overmatched and should not have an impact.

That leaves the newcomers to the Triple Crown to consider. The best of the bunch is clearly the Peter Pan (G2) winner SUNRIVER, trained by Todd Pletcher. Expect him to settle mid-pack and try to get the first shot at the leaders on the final turn.

HIGH FINANCE has only a maiden and allowance (N1X) victory to his credit, but will be the likely front runner early on and will try to steal the race on the lead.

SACRED LIGHT spent the spring chasing BROTHER DEREK and BOB AND JOHN in stakes races to no avail and lost to NOLAN'S CAT in an allowance race on Derby Day.

OH SO AWESOME spent his spring in Europe running on soggy turf courses. Although bred to handle the distance and purchased privately with this race in mind, he would need to improve dramatically on his third place finish in a minor stakes over this Belmont surface to have any impact on the superfecta.

That leaves DOUBLE GALORE who finally was able to break his maiden last time out at Hollywood Park. He should have stayed in California.

Contenders to win the Belmont Stakes

BLUEGRASS CAT
DEPUTY GLITTERS
SUNRIVER

Likely to complete Triple/Super

JAZIL
STEPPENWOLFER

May 2006 Graded Stakes Recap

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Handicap Division – Road to the BC Classic - Dirt Routes for older males

In the only Grade 1 race of the month, INVASOR (ARG) made is his first U.S. start a winning one by captured the Pimlico Special over WANDERIN BOY and HARLINGTON.

After winning two graded sprints earlier in the year, SURF CAT stretched out to win the Grade 2 Mervyn Leroy Handicap at a mile and a sixteenth.

May 13 HOL Mervyn Leroy Handicap - G2 - 1 1/16 FT - SURF CAT
May 19 PIM Pimlico Special - G1 - 1 3/16 FT - INVASOR (ARG)
May 20 PIM William Donald Schaefer Handicap - G3 - 1 1/8 FT - MASTER COMMAND
May 27 AP Hanshin Cup Handicap - G3 - 1 mile FT - GOULDINGS GREEN
May 29 CRC Memorial Day Handicap - G3 - 1 1/16 FT - SIPHON CITY

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Distaff - Dirt Routes for older females

STAR PARADE (ARG) won her second graded stakes race of the year by taking the Grade 3 Hawthorne Handicap at Hollywood Park.

May 5 CD Louisville BC Handicap - G2 - 1 1/16 FT - OONAGH MACCOOL (IRE)
May 7 HOL Hawthorne Handicap - G3 - 1 1/16 FT - STAR PARADE (ARG)
May 19 PIM Allaire duPont BC Distaff Handicap - G3 - 1 1/16 FT - POOL LAND
May 21 BEL Shuvee Handicap - G2 - 1 mile FT - TAKE D' TOUR

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older males

2005 Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) champion SILVER TRAIN reaffirmed his status as one of the leaders of the sprint division by winning the prestigious Met Mile (G1) at Belmont Park.

May 3 BEL Westchester Handicap - G3 - 1 mile FT - SIR GREELEY
May 6 CD Churchill Downs Handicap - G2 - 7 fur FT - TRICKEY TREVOR
May 13 BEL Bold Ruler Handicap - G3 - 6 fur FT - TIGER
May 13 HOL Los Angeles Times Handicap - G3 - 6 fur FT - SIREN LURE
May 20 PIM Maryland BC Sprint Handicap - G3 - 6 fur FT - FRIENDLY ISLAND
May 29 BEL Metropolitan Handicap - G1 - 1 mile FT - SILVER TRAIN

The one mile Westchester Handicap and the one mile Metropolitan Handicap (Met Mile) are included in the sprint category because they are run at Belmont Park around one turn. That, plus the fact that they really are wicked fast sprints.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older females

Only one race in the category this month, but it was a good one - the Grade 1 Humana Distaff Handicap at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day. PUSSYCAT DOLL stalked odds-on favorite BEHAVING BADLY and showed a lot of grit to prevail inside the sixteenth pole.

May 6 CD Humana Distaff Handicap - G1 - 7 fur FT - PUSSYCAT DOLL

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/Turf – Turf Routes for older males

This division should be a lot of fun this year. In addition to the return of many of last year's stars, European champion GREY SWALLOW (IRE) will be competing in the U.S. this year.

May 6 CD Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes - G1 - 1 1/8 T FM - ENGLISH CHANNEL
May 13 HOL Jim Murray Memorial Handicap - G2 - 1 1/2 T FM - GREY SWALLOW (IRE)
May 20 PIM Dixie Stakes - G2 - 1 1/8 T FM - BETTER TALK NOW
May 29 HOL Shoemaker BC Mile Stakes - G1 - 1 mile T FM - ARAGORN (IRE)
May 29 CD Louisville Handicap - G3 - 1 3/8 T FM - SILVERFOOT

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/F&M Turf – Turf Routes for older females

May 6 CD Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes - G3 - 1 mile T FM - MIRABILIS
May 7 GG Yerba Buena BC Handicap - G3 - 1 1/16 T FM - HALLOWED DREAM (IRE)
May 20 PIM Gallorette Handicap - G3 - 1 1/16 T FM - OZONE BERE (FR)
May 27 BEL Sheepshead Bay Handicap - G2 - 1 3/8 T FM - HONEY RYDER
May 29 HOL Gamely BC Handicap - G1 - 1 1/8 T FM - SHINING ENERGY
May 29 LS Winstar Distaff Handicap - G3 - 1 mile T YL - SWEET TALKER

Handicap Division – Road to Nowhere – Turf Sprints

May 5 CD Aegon Turf Sprint Stakes - G3 - 5 fur T FM - MAN OF ILLUSION (AUS)
May 28 BEL Jaipur Stakes - G3 - 6 fur T FM - AROUND THE CAPE

Three-year-olds males – Road to the Breeders' Cup Classic

May 6 CD Kentucky Derby - G1 - 1 1/4 FT - BARBARO
May 13 LS Walmac Lone Star Derby - G3 - 1 1/16 FT - WANNA RUNNER
May 20 PIM Hirsch Jacobs Stakes - G3 - 6 fur FT - SONGSTER
May 20 PIM Preakness Stakes - G1 - 1 3/16 FT - BERNARDINI
May 20 BEL Peter Pan Stakes - G2 - 1 1/8 FT - SUNRIVER
May 20 HOL Lazaro Barrera Memorial Handicap - G2 - 7 fur FT - NORTHERN SOLDIER
May 21 HOL Will Rogers Stakes - G3 - 1 mile T FM - STRATHAM (IRE)
May 29 LS Lone Star Park Handicap - G3 - 1 1/16 MY - MAGNUM (ARG)

May 5 CD Crown Royal American Turf Stakes - G3 - 1 1/16 T FM - STREAM CAT

Three-year-olds fillies – Road to the Breeders' Cup Distaff

May 5 CD Kentucky Oaks - G1 - 1 1/8 FT - LEMONS FOREVER
May 6 CD La Troienne Stakes - G3 - 7 fur FT - JOINT EFFORT
May 6 HOL Senorita Stakes - G3 - 1 mile T FM - FOXYSOX (GB)
May 6 HOL Railbird Stakes - G3 - 7 fur FT - BETTARUN FAST
May 6 BEL Nassau County BC Stakes - G2 - 7 fur FT - HELLO LIBERTY
May 19 PIM Adena Stallions' Miss Preakness - G3 - 6 fur FT - WILDCAT BETTIE B
May 19 PIM Black-Eyed Susan Stakes - G2 - 1 1/8 FT - REGAL ENGAGEMENT

Two-year-old males – Road to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile

May 4 CD Kentucky BC Stakes - G3 - 5 fur FT - DATRICK

A sad addendum to DATRICK's victory is the death of his sire, FAVORITE TRICK, and several other horses in a barn fire in New Mexico.

Two-year-olds fillies – Road to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

None.

---

Ten trainers won multiple graded stakes races in May: Todd Pletcher (7), Patrick Biancone (2), James Jerkens (2), Dallas Stewart (2), J. Larry Jones (2), Bob Baffert (2), Dale Romans (2), Darrell Vienna (2), Thomas Albertrani (2), H. Graham Motion (2).

Twelve jockeys won multiple graded stakes races in May: Garrett Gomez (6), Ramon Dominguez (5), Edgar Prado (4), Alex Solis (3), Eibar Coa (2), Julien Leparoux (2), Mark Guidry (2), Rafael Bejarano (2), Patrick Valenzuela (2), Victor Espinoza (2), Javier Castellano (2), Cornelio Velasquez (2).

--- Thoroughbred Report Graded Stakes Awards - May 2006 ---

HORSE OF THE MONTH: BARBARO

TRAINER OF THE MONTH: Todd Pletcher

JOCKEY OF THE MONTH: Garrett Gomez

2006 Preakness Stakes Preview

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If you've climbed on the Barbaro bandwagon, be careful. His morning line odds of even money are not close to representing his real chances of winning, which are about 5-2.

Yes, Barbaro looked great winning the Kentucky Derby. He may indeed be a great horse. In fact, he may even be a super horse and win the Triple Crown. However, before that can happen, he has some serious problems to deal with on Saturday and their names are Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek.

Barbaro had a dream trip in the Kentucky Derby. After some bumps early, he was quickly able to find a spot sitting just behind the race leaders. It was a comfortable, unpressured position that didn't cost him much ground around the turns and let him bide his time before cruising past the tiring leaders on the final turn and drawing away with ease.

The horses Barbaro will have to beat in the Preakness were not so lucky in the Derby. If either Sweetnorthernsaint or Brother Derek had been able to get Barbaro's dream position behind the leaders in the Derby, they would have had an equally good chance of winning the race. Instead, they had troubled trips that left them in unfamiliar, and unfavorable, positions that took too much energy out of them and left them with too much to do in the stretch to have an impact on the race results.

The Preakness should be a much more fair competition. With only nine horses, there really are no poor post positions and traffic problems will not be as significant. All three of the main contenders should be able to position themselves near where they want to run and the best horse should end up finishing first.

How the race will run

Not that there was much doubt, but with Like Now breaking from the one hole he is commited to getting the early lead. Running next to him will be Brother Derek and possibly Bernardini and/or Diabolical from the far outside. Barbaro will move to the rail behind Like Now and Sweetnorthernsaint should be just to his outside, behind Brother Derek.

Much will depend on how fiercely the front runners battle for the lead. If Like Now and Brother Derek are able to slow down the pace and conserve their energy, Brother Derek could be hard to catch as they turn for home. I don't expect that to happen. The pace should be hot and leave the front runners vulnerable by the time they reach the top of the stretch. At that point both Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint will pounce and I expect they will both fill the exacta at the wire. I will give the edge to Sweetnorthernsaint due to his stronger finishing kick and better price.

Preakness Wager

$40 Win on #7 Sweetnorthernsaint

$40 Exacta 7-6 (Sweetnorthernsaint over Barbaro)
$20 Exacta 6-7
$2 Exacta 7 over All = $16

$5 Triple Key 7 with 6 with 1,4,5,8 = $20
$1 Triple Key 7 with 6 with All = $7
$1 Triple Key 6 with 7 with All = $7

$1 Super Key 7 with 6 with All with All = $42
$1 Super Key 6 with 7 with 1,4,5,8 with All = $24

Total Wager: $216

2006 Kentucky Derby Recap

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Barbaro wins the 132nd Kentucky Derby

You have to wonder when Michael Matz first realized he had a Kentucky Derby horse in Barbaro.

Certainly not last fall. Barbaro broke his maiden at first asking in a mile turf race at Delaware and came back six weeks later to win the Laurel Futurity at a mile and a sixteenth, also on the turf. Matz surely knew he had a good horse, but clearly wasn't thinking Kentucky Derby when he sent Barbaro out on New Year's Day to win the mile and one eighth Tropical Park Derby (G3) at Calder.

The light bulb must have been flickering to life by now. Perhaps jockey Edgar Prado mentioned something in the Winner's Circle after the Tropical Park Derby, "Um, Michael? This turf thing is going swell, he seems unbeatable on the grass, but don't you wonder if maybe he is unbeatable on dirt, too?" Or not.

In any case, Matz got the message. Barbaro was officially redirected to the Kentucky Derby Trail. Although Matz was willing to try Barbaro on the dirt, I'm guessing it wasn't until after Barbaro won the nine furlong Holy Bull Stakes (G3) in the slop at Gulfstream that he truly believed he had a Derby horse.

After the Holy Bull, Matz developed a plan. He would spend the next two months training Barbaro for dirt racing and the rigors of the Triple Crown trail, run one final prep in the Florida Derby (G1) and then go straight to the Kentucky Derby five weeks later.

The plan wasn't well received. "One race in thirteen weeks isn't enough." "No horse has won the Derby off a five week layoff in 50 years!" "He's a turf horse." "He barely beat Sharp Humor in the Florida Derby."

Turns out, Matz knew what he was doing. Barbaro was fit, sharp and thoroughly dominated the 132nd Kentucky Derby. Despite a stumble at the start, and some bumping early on, Barbaro's favorable post position and natural early speed enabled him to secure a comfortable position just behind the leaders. From this prime location, Barbaro had first jump on the tiring leaders on the far turn, moved quickly to the lead, and sprinted away to a six and one half length victory.

Top contenders not so lucky

Race favorite Sweetnorthernsaint was bumped at the start and had to steady more than once in the first quarter mile, but did show great determination by making a strong move to rally from twelfth to third, over a dead rail path, before tiring in the stretch to finish seventh.

Morning line favorite Brother Derek was doomed from the moment he was stuck with post eighteen at the position draw on Wednesday. Despite travelling very wide the whole race, and dropping back as far as fourteenth, Brother Derek was able to make a run in the stretch to finish in a dead heat for fourth.

Other runners of note

Barbaro's stalking position was so good that even the horse following him was able to benefit. Bluegrass Cat woke up at 30-1 to finish second by following Barbaro all of the way around the track.

Steppenwolfer and Jazil both ran as advertised. Dropping back early and making one big run late enabled them to finish third and in a dead heat for fourth, respectively.

Lightly raced Showing Up, stablemate of Barbaro, ran side-by-side with the eventual winner for three-quarters of a mile before tiring in the stretch to finish sixth.

Early speed fails again

As I discussed in the Kentucky Derby Preview, horses with a BRIS running style of E, for Early, and runners whose Early Pace (EP) rating from their last prep exceeded the Early Pace par for the Kentucky Derby, did very poorly in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. The 2006 results were very similar:

In 2005, there were four E-Type runners; they finished 7th, 16th, 18th, 20th.

In 2006, there were also four E-Type runners: Brother Derek (finished 4th-DH), Sinister Minister (16th), Sharp Humor (19th), Keyed Entry (20th)

In 2005, there were seven Non-E-Type runners with last race EP greater than the Kentucky Derby EP par; they finished 2nd, 10th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 17th, 19th.

In 2006, there were four Non-E-Type runners with last race EP greater than the Kentucky Derby EP par: Deputy Glitters (finished 8th), Lawyer Ron (12th), Private Vow (15th), Bob and John (17th).

I'm not sure how much to make of this yet, but I will be discounting horses with these running styles next year if the field is similarly composed.

2006 Kentucky Derby Wager

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I'm going to bet against favorites Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron. If either of them are involved at the end, I'll lose all of my bets. If they can't cope with the early pace and fall out of it, I have hopes of making some money.

These are the primary horses I will use to build various tickets:

#11 SWEETNORTHERNSAINT
#7 BOB AND JOHN
#8 BARBARO
#5 POINT DETERMINED

These horses will be used to fill the bottom of triples and supers:

#16 CAUSE TO BELIEVE
#19 STORM TREASURE
#14 DEPUTY GLITTERS

I'll build my tickets based on two different scenarios:

1) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT is as good as I think

Exactas: 11 with 5,7,8 for $2 = $6

Tri Key: 11 with 5,7,8 for $1 = $6

Tri Key: 11 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 for $1 = $30

Super: 11 with 5,7,8 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 for $1 = $60

2) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT is a factor, but doesn't win

Exactas: Box 5,7,8,11 for $2 = $24

Triples: 5,7,8 with 11 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 for $1 = $15
5,7,8 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 with 11 for $1 = $15

Super: 5,7,8 with 5,7,8 with 5,7,8,11,16 with 5,7,8,11,16,19 for $1 = $54

Good luck and have a great Derby Day!

2006 Kentucky Derby Preview

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How much early speed is too much early speed?

Answer that question and you'll be a long way towards figuring out this year's Kentucky Derby.

There has been plenty of discussion the past few weeks about the quantity of early runners in this year's Derby. Will the early runners burn each other out and set up the race for a deep closer? There was plenty of the same talk last year, but that didn't stop the public from making front runner Bellamy Road the 5/2 favorite. He finished seventh. Brother Derek is the morning line favorite this year and is a front runner facing other commited front runners. Sound familiar?

Last year, in addition to Bellamy Road there were three other horses with an E (for Early) pace designation - they finished 16th, 18th and 20th. It's not just about getting burned out fighting for the lead, it's also about the horse's comfort level. Early runners like to run up front. If they get stuck in one of the far outside post positions, or they fail to get out of the gate quickly, or get slammed into by other horses in the first few steps of the race, their chances of getting anywhere near the lead in a 20 horse field are severely compromised. It is the rare Early runner that is able to overcome such adverse conditions and adapt to having to make a big move late in the race from the back of the pack. Most will be upset to find dirt being kicked in their face (probably for the first time in their career) and quickly become discouraged.

The BRIS Early Pace par for last year's Derby was 104. Of the 20 horses in the race, 11 had exceeded that number is their final Derby prep. In addition to the four commited Early runners there were seven more horses who had shown an affinity for running fast early. There just wasn't enough room up front for all of those horses to find a comfortable spot on or near the lead. Those 11 runners finished 7th (Bellamy Road), 10th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, and 20th. That's only 10, the 11th was the only horse to find his happy place - 70-1 longshot Closing Argument broke from the 18 post, was able to find a spot on the outside just a few lengths off the lead, made the first move when the front-runners slowed and briefly held the lead before being caught by Giacomo nearing the wire. That's one horse out of eleven that was able to find a comfortable place to run early.

Although there has been a lot of talk of a similar scenario this year, it may not be quite as dramatic. There are again four Early runners this year (Keyed Entry, Sinister Minister, Sharp Humor and Brother Derek), two of whom did not exceed the Derby Early Pace par in their final prep (Sharp Humor and Brother Derek). There are only four other runners who exceeded the Derby's Early Pace par in the final prep race (Bob and John, Private Vow, Deputy Glitters and Lawyer Ron). That gives us eight horses with a strong interest in running on or very near the lead. That's a little better than last year's eleven, but you can still expect a contentious battle up front, albeit with a slightly better chance for one or two of these eight to find a suitable position up front.

I expect the four Early runners will still get the worst of it. Although Brother Derek breaks from the same 18 hole as Closing Argument last year, I don't think he'll be as happy to cruise along in sixth place. These four seriously want the lead, will fight hard to get it, and will therefore lose all chance of winning. Of the other four, someone may get a dream trip like Closing Argument and still be involved in the stretch, but they could just as easily be caught up in the pace battle and be done on the final turn.

Although Lawyer Ron did rate early in the Rebel Stakes, he would not tolerate being taken back in the Arkansas Derby and forced his way to the lead. Although his string of wins are nice, his speed ratings do not measure up to the the last two Arkansas Derby winners to run in the Kentucky Derby - Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex. Plan on Lawyer Ron wanting the lead and being further compromised by the 17 post.

Private Vow is also coming out of the Arkansas Derby, but it was only his second race of the year and he has yet to show improvement as a three-year-old. On the plus side, third race off a layoff is a positive angle and his last win was at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last November.

Deputy Glitters was very impressive beating Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby, but was not flattered by Bluegrass Cat's poor performance in the Blue Grass Stakes. The Wood Memorial was Deputy Glitter's second poor outing on a sloppy track, so you can probably disregard it. He was content to track Bluegrass Cat in both Tampa Bay Downs races and, if he can rate on Saturday, he could still be running in the stretch. He's probably not a Grade 1 horse. But maybe.

Bob and John has shown the ability to lay just off the pace and make a move for the lead on the final turn. If he were able to lay eight or nine lengths off the lead on Saturday, he could have a perfect trip and be very dangerous coming for home. While he wasn't exactly flying home in the Wood Memorial, it was a very sloppy track and he did win the race, which should count for something.

Others that should be able to get good positions just off the early speed are Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint with Point Determined a little further back.

Sweetnorthernsaint was a very impressive winner of the Illinois Derby. Showing an ability to rate off the lead combined with a strong closing kick, he should be very dangerous in the Kentucky Derby.

Barbaro has excelled at everything he has tried. And he has tried everything from turf routes, sloppy dirt tracks and fast dirt tracks. All he does is win. He seems to run every race the same - break well, sit just off the leader for three quarters of the race, then move to the lead and hold on for the win. That last part is at least a small concern. Barbaro was all out to hold off a very game Sharp Humor in the Florida Derby.

Point Determined hasn't won a graded stakes race yet, but has shown an ability to rate several lengths off the pace and close well at the end. Sounds vaguely Giacomo-ish.

Also sounding very Giacomo-ish is A. P. Warrior who is another West Coast horse that seems willing to settle mid-pack and close in the stretch.

Cause To Believe was no match for Sweetnorthernsaint in the Illinois Derby, but has shown an ability to sit mid-pack and close well racing in California.

A few horses will be content to stroll along at the back of the pack and hope to be able find their way through traffic and make one big run at the end.

Jazil was visually impressive closing from last to catch Keyed Entry for second in the Wood Memorial, but no one else was really running at that point.

Three times Steppenwolfer has dropped to the back of the pack and made one big run to try and catch Laywer Ron only to come up short each time.

The lightly raced Storm Treasure made a strong move from the back of the pack on final turn to the furlong marker but could not gain ground on front running Sinister Minister in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has been working very well at Churchill Downs and may be improving.

As for the rest, I just don't like them. Bluegrass Cat has disappointed in his last two races and doesn't seem likely to handle the distance. Showing Up has only run three times and that can't be enough. Flashy Bull and Seaside Retreat aren't anywhere near good enough to be entered in this race.

Thoroughbred Report Picks:

SWEETNORTHERNSAINT
BOB AND JOHN
BARBARO
POINT DETERMINED

April 2006 Graded Stakes Recap

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Handicap Division – Road to the BC Classic - Dirt Routes for older males

The handicap division continues to feature refugees from last years Triple Crown trail. Following in the hoofprints of HIGH LIMIT, ROCKPORT HARBOR, HARLINGTON and BUZZARDS BAY, BANDINI won his first graded stakes since last year's Blue Grass Stakes (G1) - the mile and one eighth Skip Away Handicap at Gulfstream Park.

PREACHINATTHEBAR won two graded stakes this month, the mile and one eighth Tokyo City Handicap (G3) at Santa Anita and the one mile Texas Mile Stakes (G3) at Lone Star.

BUZZARDS BAY won his second graded stakes of the year, the mile and one eighth Oaklawn Handicap (G2) at Oaklawn Park.

In other action around the country, WEST VIRGINIA won the 9 furlong Excelsior BC Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct, KID GRINDSTONE won the mile and a sixteenth Fifth Season Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, and THREE HOUR NAP won the 9 furlong National Jockey Club Handicap (G3) at Hawthorne.

WANDERIN BOY won the 9 furlong Ben Ali Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. It was his second second 111+ BSF of the month.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Distaff - Dirt Routes for older females

SPUN SUGAR won the mile and a sixteenth Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) at Oaklawn Park by battling STAR PARADE (ARG) early and HAPPY TICKET late to prevail gamely at the wire.

FLEET INDIAN won her second graded stakes race of the year by dropping a tasty 112 BSF on the field to win the mile and one eighth Sixty Sails Handicap (G3) at Hawthorne.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older males

BISHOP COURT HILL sprinted clear, made all of the pace, and held on for neck victory over SIR GREELEY in the seven furlong Carter Handicap (G1) over a sloppy Aqueduct Racetrack.

Odds-on favorite SURF CAT won his second graded stakes of the year by besting a five horse field in the six and one half furlong Potrero Grande BC Handicap (G2) at Santa Anita.

SUN KING, in 11th place, 10 lengths behind the leader after a half mile, closed well over the speed favoring Keeneland track to win going away in the seven furlong Commonwealth BC Stakes (G2).

BORDONARO battled FRIENDLY ISLAND gate to wire to win the six furlong Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn Park and earned a 115 BSF. It was the fourth consecutive six furlong stakes victory for BORDONARO.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older females

DUBAI ESCAPADE was hustled to a clear lead and was never seriously challenged in winning the seven furlong Vinery Madison Stakes (G2) at Keeneland.

MAGNOLIA JACKSON raced close to the pace early, battled between horses down the stretch and was very game to win by a neck in the seven furlong Bed O'Roses BC Handicap (G2) at Aqueduct.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/Turf – Turf Routes for older males

MIESQUE'S APPROVAL rated early, swung wide entering the stretch and was very game to get up by a nose over Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) hero ARTIE SCHILLER in the one mile Maker's Mark Mile Stakes (G2) at Keeneland.

For the second year in a row, T. H. APPROVAL won the mile and three-quarter San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap (G2) at Santa Anita.

SILENT NAME (JPN) tracked the leaders early, made a good move to take the lead midway on the final turn and stayed strong to the wire to beat a good field in the one mile Arcadia Handicap (G2) at Santa Anita.

CHARMO (FR) was content to wait at the back of the pack, swung wide entering the stretch to pass the leaders and outgamed ARAGORN (IRE) nearing the wire to win by one in the one mile San Francisco BC Mile Handicap (G2) at Golden Gate Fields.

In Grade 3 action, WILLOW O WISP won the mile and a sixteenth Inglewood Handicap (G3) at Hollywood Park, SILVER WHISTLE won the mile and one half Pan American Handicap (G3) at Gulfstream Park, FORT PRADO won the nine furlong John B. Connally BC Turf Handicap (G3) at Sam Houston, FOREVERNESS won the mile and a sixteenth Fort Marcy Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct, PELLEGRINO (BRZ) won the mile and one half Fifth Third Elkhorn Stakes (G3) at Keeneland and GIGAWATT won the one mile Miami Mile BC Handicap (G3) at Calder Race Course.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/F&M Turf – Turf Routes for older females

WEND won her second graded stakes of the year by settling mid-pack, swinging four wide entering the stretch before catching the leaders mid-stretch to win the mile and a sixteenth Jenny Wiley Stakes (G2) at Keeneland by a length and a half.

SHARP LISA broke best, set all the pace, and was game to the wire to hold off ETERNAL MELODY (NZ) by a nose in the mile and a quarter Santa Barbara Handicap (G2) at Santa Anita.

HONEY RYDER easily won the mile and a half Orchid Handicap (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

NOBLE STELLA (GER) won the mile and a half Bewitch Stakes (G3) at Keeneland in gate-to-wire fashion as did POMMES FRITES in winning the mile and a sixteenth Beaugay Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct.

HEAVENLY RANSON won the one mile Wilshire Handicap (G3) at Hollywood Park.

Handicap Division – Road to Nowhere – Turf Sprints

Doesn't it seem to be that there are quite a few more Turf Sprints than in past years? I'm pretty sure NYRA is running more than ever. Given that, if the Breeders' Cup had an extra $6 million to spend, why not use a million for a Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint?

ATTICUS KRISTY scored a neck victory in the five and one half furlong Shakertown Stakes (G3) at Keeneland.

CAMBIOCORSA won the six and one half furlong Las Cienegas Handicap (G3) and PURE AS GOLD won the 6 and one half San Simeon Handicap (G3), both at Santa Anita.

Three-year-olds – Road to the Kentucky Derby

Three-year-olds fillies – Road to the Kentucky Oaks

Florida Oaks winner BUSHFIRE [Photos] scored big with a gate-to-wire victory over a top field of three-year-old fillies in the mile and a sixteenth Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.

DIPLOMAT LADY battled for the lead early, setting strong fractions, before drawing away to victory in the seven furlong Stonerside Beaumont Stakes (G2) at Keeneland.

READY TO PLEASE received a gift-wrapped win when front running longshot MISS NORMAN decided to bolt to the outside twice in the stretch of the mile and a sixteenth Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park.

MIRACULOUS MISS rallied from the back of the field to get up for the win the in one mile Comely Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct.

Longshot BETTARUN FAST was a game winner of the six and one half furlong Santa Paula Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

FOXYSOX (GB) stalked, pounced, and gamely prevailed in the one mile Providencia Stakes (G3) over the Santa Anita turf course.

---

Seven trainers won multiple graded stakes races in April: Todd Pletcher (7), Bob Baffert (5), Bill Mott (3), Doug O'Neill (3), Vladimir Cerin (2), Nick Zito (2), Roger Attfield (2).

Thirteen jockeys won multiple graded stakes races in April: Edgar Prado (5), Garrett Gomez (4), Jon Kenton Court (4), Cornelio Velasquez (4), Alex Solis (3), John Velazquez (2), Patrick Valenzuela (2), Kent Desormeaux (2), Corey Nakatani (2), Norberto Arroyo, Jr. (2), Shawn Bridgmohan (2), Jose Santos (2), Javier Castellano (2).

--- Thoroughbred Report Graded Stakes Awards - April 2006 ---

HORSE OF THE MONTH: PREACHINATTHEBAR

TRAINER OF THE MONTH: Todd Pletcher

JOCKEY OF THE MONTH: Edgar Prado

2006 Triple Crown Trail - April Recap

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April 29th, 2006

Derby Trial Stakes - Churchill Downs - One mile

Once an actual prep for the Kentucky Derby, the Derby Trial is now more of a prep for second-tier horses hoping to run in the Preakness Stakes (G1) two weeks after the Derby.

RECORD, yet another Bob Baffert three-year-old, tracked just outside the lead pack, moved smartly between horses in the stretch and was all out to catch SPOTSGONE at the wire.

Withers Stakes (G3) - Aqueduct - One mile

Despite its' Grade 3 status and $150,000 purse, the Withers seems to have fallen out of favor - only four horses entered the starting gate.

Jockey Javier Castellano placed BERNARDINI just off pacesetter LUXEMBOURG, tracked him until the top of the stretch, then quickly dispatched him to draw away to a four length victory.

April 22nd, 2006

Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) - Keeneland - One mile and one sixteenth

Following a troubled start, SHOWING UP settled midpack along the rail, continued to save ground around the far turn, smoothly moved outside entering the stretch and battled BEAR CHARACTER and LIKE NOW down the stretch before getting up to win by just over a length at the wire.

LIKE NOW also ran a strong race, dueling with FAST PARADE early, then losing the lead in the stretch to BEAR CHARACTER before battling back gamely to nip that one at the wire for the place.

Both SHOWING UP and LIKE NOW earned enough graded stakes money to enable them to run in the Kentucky Derby in two weeks.

Frederico Tesio Stakes - Pimlico - One mile and one eighth

AH DAY, winner of the Horatius Stakes at Laurel last month, raced off the rail early, moved up to take a clear lead entering the far turn and turned it up in the stretch to win by five and a half in the slop.

Maryland Stallion Station Stakes - Pimlico - Six furlongs

PAGAN MOON tracked RAINBOW INTHESTORM from the start, challenged for the lead mid-stretch and took command leaving the sixteenth pole to win by a length and a half.

April 20th, 2006

Forerunner Stakes - Keeneland - One mile and one eighth on the turf

In what can only be described as a pyrrhic victory, even-money favorite UP AN OCTAVE battled front-runner TAHOE WARRIOR the length of the stretch to prevail at the wire. Sadly, a sixteenth past the wire, UP AN OCTAVE's left front foreleg shattered, throwing jockey John Velazquez to the ground with UP AN OCTAVE rolling over him. UP AN OCTAVE's injuries were catastrophic and he was euthanized on the turf course. Jockey John Velazquez was hospitalized with a fractured right shoulder blade and two cracked ribs and is not expected to return to riding for several months.

April 15th, 2006

Blue Grass Stakes (G1) - Keeneland - One mile and one eighth

SINISTER MINISTER quickly assumed a clear lead, lengthened the lead throughout the race while setting fast fractions and never looked back to win by nearly thirteen lengths.

BLUEGRASS CAT and FIRST SAMURAI, leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby earlier this year, showed little and have no reason to continue on to Louisville.

Lightly raced STRONG CONTENDER may well move forward off this race, but probably needed to finished second to have enough graded stakes earnings for the Kentucky Derby.

Arkansas Derby (G2) - Oaklawn Park - One mile and one eighth

LAWYER RON broke awkwardly, settled briefly in fourth before insisting on moving up the inside to take the lead and was never seriously challenged to the wire.

Northern Spur Breeders' Cup Stakes - Oaklawn Park - One mile

ADMIRAL'S ARCH was shuffled back early, caught in traffic mid-race, weaved through the field on the far turn and was all out to just catch front-running longshot SWEETENING at the wire.

La Puente Stakes - Santa Anita - One mile on the turf

STRATHAM (IRE) saved ground mid-pack, waited patiently until mid-stretch, and was able to get clear late.

April 9th, 2006

San Pedro Stakes (G3) - Santa Anita - Six and one half furlongs

ARSON SQUAD broke slowly, trailed the field for the first half mile, then closed well to catch race favorite DA STOOPS in deep stretch.

Lafayette Stakes - Keeneland - Six furlongs

LIKELY raced close to the pace for a half mile, took the lead from race favorite LAPTOP COMPUTER at the top of the stretch and drew away for a nine length victory.

April 8th, 2006

Bay Shore Stakes (G3) - Aqueduct - Seven furlongs

Winner of two stakes races this year at Santa Anita, TOO MUCH BLING had no trouble switching to the East Coast. The Baffert trainee won with ease over a sloppy race course under jockey Garrett Gomez.

Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) - Aqueduct - Mile and one eighth

BOB AND JOHN, another Baffert/Gomez West Coast invader, broke well, was content to sit third behind front runner KEYED ENTRY in the early going, responded well in the stretch and was able to draw clear at the wire over a sloppy race course.

Kiaran McLaughlin trainee JAZIL, flying late under jockey Fernando Jara, was able to steal second place money from Pletcher/Prado runner KEYED ENTRY in the final strides. Even though BOB AND JOHN's final furlong was quite slow, JAZIL's six length gain in the stretch is bound to get him plenty of attention from the wiseguys if he continues on to the Kentucky Derby.

Illinois Derby (G2) - Hawthorne - Mile and one eighth

SWEETNORTHERNSAINT broke from the ten hole under jockey Kent Desormeaux and was quickly put into a stalking position outside of front runner MISTER TRIESTER. Content to rate off the leader for the first six furlongs, SWEETNORTHERNSAINT took the lead on the final turn without urging and finished strong for an easy victory.

Santa Anita Derby (G1) - Santa Anita - Mile and one eighth

BROTHER DEREK broke well, was unchallenged for the early lead, set his own pace and was never seriously threatened by the other four runners as he cruised down the stretch to an easy three length victory. This was the third graded stakes victory of the year for BROTHER DEREK.

As dominating as BROTHER DEREK looked, keep in mind that he will be facing a field of 20 in the Kentucky Derby, several of whom will be able to battle him for the early lead. Stay tuned.

April 7th, 2006

Transylvania Stakes (G3) - Keeneland - One Mile on the turf

CHIN HIGH saved ground at the back of the pack early, closed through the stretch, and was able to prevail at the wire for a whopping $139 win mutuel. Odds-on favorite TO SENDER (GB) pressed the pace for the first half mile before fading to finish last.

April 1st, 2006

Florida Derby (G1) - Gulfstream Park - Mile and one eighth

In January, BARBARO won a graded stakes race on turf. In February, BARBARO won a graded stakes on a sloppy track. Today, BARBARO won a graded stakes on a fast track and stamped his ticket to Louisville for the first Saturday in May.

After a troubled start, jockey Edgar Prado was able to position BARBARO just off pace setter SHARP HUMOR, winner of last month's seven furlong Swale Stakes (G2). Drawing even with his rival turning for home, BARBARO and SHARP HUMOR engaged in a protracted duel the length of the stretch with BARBARO prevailing by only half a length.

The final time of the race compares favorably with the prior race on the Gulfstream card - the mile and one eighth Skip Away Handicap (G3) won by four-year-old BANDINI - and both runners should benefit from the race and move forward to be factors in the Kentucky Derby.

WinStar Derby - Sunland Park - Mile and one eighth

Despite not being a graded stakes race, the WinStar Derby's $600,00 purse was attractive enough for Bob Baffert to enter two runners - first and second place finishers WANNA RUNNER and SKY DIVING.

Given the financial commitment by track ownership to the WinStar Derby, it would be nice to see this race receive graded status next year. A Grade 3 WinStar Derby would be a valuable alternative for West Coast trainers trying to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. If the race had been graded this year, the $300,000 first place money would be more than enough to get WANNA RUNNER into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. (Whether he should be in the starting gate is a different matter).

Spectacular Bid Stakes - Gulfstream Park - Six and one half furlongs

Pletcher/Velazquez runner EXCLUSIVE QUALITY was all out to defeat Klesaris/Velasquez runner DIABOLICAL by half a length.

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Bob Baffert had a great month, winning five stakes races for three-year-olds. Todd Pletcher was the only other trainer to win more than one stakes races on the Derby trail this month.

Three jockeys won more than one stakes race for three-year-olds this month: Garrett Gomez (3), John Velazquez (2), and Ryan Fogelsanger (2).

--- Thoroughbred Report Triple Crown Trail Awards - April 2006 ---

HORSE OF THE MONTH: SINISTER MINISTER

TRAINER OF THE MONTH: Bob Baffert

JOCKEY OF THE MONTH: Garrett Gomez

March 2006 Graded Stakes Recap

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Handicap Division – Road to the BC Classic - Dirt Routes for older males

LAVA MAN followed up his victory in the million dollar Sunshine Millions Classic (restricted) in January by winning the million dollar Santa Anita Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita and earned the highest Beyer Figure of the year to date.

HARLINGTON won the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) at Gulfstream and PURIM won Razorback Breeder's Cup Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn Park.

At Nad Al Sheba racecourse in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, UTOPIA (JPN) won the Godolphin Mile and ELECTROCUTIONIST won the Dubai World Cup.

Originally scheduled for the turf, the Golden Gate Fields Handicap was won by COSMONAUT on the dirt at a mile and one eighth, but the surface change forfeited the graded status.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Distaff - Dirt Routes for older females

HEALTHY ADDICTION won the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita leading from gate to wire.

OONAGH MACCOOL (IRE) won the Rampart Handicap (G2) at Gulfstream Park, ROUND POND won the Azeri Breeder's Cup Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park and FLEET INDIAN won the Next Move Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older males

MISTER FOTIS won the Richter Scale BC Sprint Championship (G2) at Gulfstream and KAZOO won the Tobaggan Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct.

PROUD TOWER TWO won the Dubai Golden Shaheen at Nad Al Sheba racecourse in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

The General George Handicap (G2) at Laurel was cancelled when travel restrictions were implemented due to the equine herpesvirus situation in the state.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older females

SMOKEY GLACKEN won her third graded stakes in as many months with a victory in the Distaff Breeder's Cup Handicap (G2) at Aqueduct.

SPLENDID BLENDED won the Shirley Jones Handicap (G2) at Gulfstream.

The Barbara Fritchie Handicap (G2) at Laurel was cancelled when travel restrictions were implemented due to the equine herpesvirus situation in the state.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/Turf – Turf Routes for older males

At Santa Anita, MILK IT MICK (GB) won the Frank Kilroe Mile Handicap (G1) and KING'S DRAMA (IRE) won the San Luis Rey Handicap (G2).

At Nad Al Sheba racecourse in Dubai, HEART'S CRY (JPN) won the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) and DAVID JUNIOR won the Dubai Duty Free (G1).

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/F&M Turf – Turf Routes for older females

SILVER CUP (IRE) won the Santa Ana Handicap (G2) at Santa Anita. It was the third graded stakes victory of the year for SILVER CUP (IRE).

At Gulfstream Park, WEND won the Honey Fox Handicap (G3) and DYNAMITE LASS won the The Very One Handicap (G3). READY'S GAL won the Hillsborough Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Golden Gate Fields Handicap was taken off the turf.

Three-year-olds – Road to the Kentucky Derby

Three-year-olds fillies – Road to the Kentucky Oaks

BALANCE followed up her victory in last month's Grade 1 Las Virgines Stakes by winning another Grade 1 - the Santa Anita Oaks at Santa Anita.

At Gulfstream Park, TEAMMATE won the Bonnie Miss Stakes (G2) and MIRACULOUS MISS won the Stonerside Forward Gal Stakes (G2). At Aqueduct, WILD GAMS won the Cicada Stakes (G3) and, at Turfway Park, TOP NOTCH LADY won the Bourbonette Breeder's Cup Stakes (G3).

On the turf, AUNT HENNY won the Herecomesthebride Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream.

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Five trainers won multiple graded stakes races in March: Todd Pletcher (4), Bill Mott (3), Kiaran McLaughlin (2), Saeed bin Suroor (2), Kojiro Hashiguchi (2).

Eight jockeys won multiple graded stakes races in March: Raphael Bejarano (3), Edgar Prado (3), John Velazquez (2), Javier Castellano (2), Robby Albarado (2), Jon Court (2), Victor Espinoza (2), Frankie Dettori (2).

--- Thoroughbred Report Graded Stakes Awards - March 2006 ---

HORSE OF THE MONTH: LAVA MAN

TRAINER OF THE MONTH: Todd Pletcher

JOCKEY OF THE MONTH: Rafael Bejarano

2006 Triple Crown Trail - March Recap

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Good news, bad news and bombs. March was a month of mixed fortunes for horses on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Good News: FIRST SAMURAI, BROTHER DEREK and LAWYER RON all took another step forward with nice wins. (OK, FIRST SAMURAI was beaten to the wire by CORINTHIAN and only beat FLASHY BULL by a neck, but the DQ of CORINTHIAN was legitimate and FIRST SAMURAI did show a lot of heart coming on again after being passed and bothered by CORINTHIAN).

Bad News: ACHILLES OF TROY, KEYED ENTRY and BLUEGRASS CAT all failed to follow up their February victories with a win. (OK, KEYED ENTRY came home very gamely and only lost by a neck to LIKE NOW, who was able to set an easy pace on the lead).

The Bombs: Some of the upsets this month yielded big payoffs. LIKE NOW won the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct at 36.25-1, WITH A CITY won the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway at 48.8-1 and OUR PEAK won the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel at 73.9-1.

FIRST SAMURAI's victory was in the mile and one eighth Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Also on that card, SHARP HUMOR won the 7 furlong Swale Stakes (G2).

BROTHER DEREK's win was at Santa Anita in the mile and one sixteenth Santa Catalina Stakes (G2). Also on that card, FIRST PARADE won the six and one half furlong Baldwin Stakes, which was moved off the turf and therefore does not count as a Grade 3 win.

LAWYER RON was the winner of the mile and one sixteenth Rebel Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn.

LIKE NOW's gate to wire win in the mile and one sixteenth Gotham Stakes (G3) was over the well regarded runners KEYED ENTRY, SWEETNORTHERNSAINT and ACHILLES OF TROY.

At Santa Anita, A. P. WARRIOR won the mile and one sixteenth San Felipe Stakes (G3).

DEPUTY GLITTERS avenged his loss in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and scored a decisive victory over BLUEGRASS CAT in the mile and one sixteenth Tampa Bay Derby (G3).

WITH A CITY's big score was in the mile and one eighth Lane's End Stakes (G2) at Turfway Park. Also at Turfway that day, SKELETON CREW won the six furlong Hansel Stakes and HIGH COTTON returned to the derby trail with a win in the mile and one sixteenth Rushaway Stakes.

In non-graded action, AH DAY won the six furlong Horatius Stakes and OUR PEAK scored in the one mile Private Terms Stakes (both at Laurel Park), LAITY won the mile and one sixteenth John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park and CAUSE TO BELIEVE won the mile and one sixteenth California Stakes at Golden Gate Fields.

On the turf in March, GO BETWEEN won the mile and one eighth Palm Beach Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park and TO SENDER (GB) won the one mile Pasadena Stakes at Santa Anita.

An interesting development this month was the the victory by DISCREET CAT in the $2,000,000 U.A.E. Derby (G2) in Dubai. Purchased by Goldolphin after breaking his maiden at Saratoga, DISCREET CAT's victory in the mile and one eighth (about) race was very impressive considering he had only run twice before. Although Godolphin will give consideration to the Kentucky Derby, it would be a stretch run such a lightly-raced horse a mile and one quarter on the first Saturday in May.

The thinning of the herd continued this month with PEACE CHANT, BARBICAN, CATCOMINATCHA, LATENT HEAT, YOUR TENT OR MINE and CORINTHIAN all suffering injuries that will keep them from running in the Kentucky Derby. Also leaving the Triple Crown Trail is HENNY HUGHES, runner-up in the 2005 Breeder's Cup Juvenile (G1) at Belmont Park.

Only one trainer was able to win more that one three-year-old stakes race this month - Frank Brothers won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream with FIRST SAMURAI and the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes with LAITY at Turfway Park.

Edgar Prado and Alex Solis both won two stakes races for three-year-olds in March.

--- Thoroughbred Report Triple Crown Trail Awards - March 2006 ---

HORSE OF THE MONTH: BROTHER DEREK

TRAINER OF THE MONTH: Frank Brothers

JOCKEY OF THE MONTH: Edgar Prado

February 2006 Graded Stakes Recap

Return to ThoroughbredReport.com

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Classic - Dirt Routes for older males

BRASS HAT and HIGH LIMIT both won their second graded stakes of the year in as many months. We have got to get these two crazy kids together!

BRASS HAT won the mile and one-eighth Donn Handicap (G1) over a sloppy Gulfstream Park course. HIGH LIMIT won the mile and one-eighth Strub Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita.

SPELLBINDER won the mile and one-eighth San Antonio (G2), also at Santa Anita.

Once a contender for last year's Kentucky Derby, ROCKPORT HARBOR won the mile and a sixteenth Essex Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn Park, his first start in nine months. Another runner from last year's Triple Crown Trail, and the fifth place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, BUZZARDS BAY won the mile and one-eighth All American Handicap (G3) at Golden Gate Fields.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Distaff - Dirt Routes for older females

Originally scheduled for the turf, the mile and one-eighth Suwannee River Handicap (G3) was won by EYES ON EDDY over a sloppy Gulfstream Park course.

At Santa Anita, STAR PARADE (ARG) won the mile and a sixteenth Santa Maria Handicap (G1) and SEAFREE won the mile and one-eighth La Canada Stakes (G2).

Back at Gulfstream Park, TAITTINGER ROSE won the mile and one-eighth Sabin Handicap (G2).

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older males

UNIVERSAL FORM won the six and one-half furlong Deputy Minister Handicap (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

At Santa Anita, SURF CAT closed well to defeat a strong field in the seven furlong San Carlos Handicap (G2).

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older females

Winner of last month's six furlong First Lady Handicap (G2), SMOKEY GLACKEN returns to win the six and one-half furlong Hurricane Bertie Handicap (G2) at Gulfstream Park.

At Santa Anita, the six furlong Las Flores Handicap (G3) was won by yet another repeat graded stakes winner, BEHAVING BADLY, who also won last month's SANTA MONICA (G1).

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/Turf – Turf Routes for older males

Longshot GULCH APPROVAL wired the field in the one mile Appleton Handicap (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

The Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) was won by three-and-a-half-year-old EINSTEIN (BRZ) in front running style. The win may have been aided by the positioning of the inside rail on Gulfstream's turf course. Dick Powell's Handicapping Insights column discusses how the Gulfstream Park turf course is really several turf courses in one. When the inner rail is set at zero feet, as it was for this race, the course becomes very similar to Saratoga's Inner Turf course, where front runners do very well. When the inner rail is set further out, 60', 72' or even 84', then the course becomes more like Saratoga's main Mellon Turf course, where closers have a better chance of getting up in time. GULCH APPROVAL's win earlier this month was also won in front running style, but the rail was set at 48' - a fairly neutral position where no particular running style dominates. Be sure to read Powell's interesting article to learn more about this.

At Santa Anita, the mile and one-half San Luis Obispo Handicap (G2) was won by ATLANDO (IRE).

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/F&M Turf – Turf Routes for older females

Yet another repeat graded stakes winner, SILVER CUP (IRE) won the one mile Buena Vista Handicap (G2) at Santa Anita.

The Suwanne River Handicap (G3) at Gulfstream Park was moved off the turf.

Three-year-olds – Road to the Kentucky Derby

Three-year-olds fillies – Road to the Kentucky Oaks

Two graded stakes for fillies were run over a sloppy Gulfstream Park on February 4th. The Davona Dale Stakes (G2), run at a mile and one-eighth, was won by Pletcher/Velazquez runner WAIT A WHILE. The six and half furlong OLD HAT STAKES (G3) was won MISTY ROSETTE. At Santa Anita, BALANCE won the one mile Las Virgenes Stakes (G1) over a fast track.

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Four trainers won two graded stakes races apiece in February: Todd Pletcher, Bobby Frankel, Bob Baffert and Darrell Vienna.

As for the jockeys, Victor Espinoza won three graded stakes (aboard BALANCE, SILVER CUP (IRE), and BEHAVING BADLY) for three different trainers (Hofmans, Biancone and Baffert). Also winning three graded stakes was Martin Pedroza. Four other jocks won two graded stakes apiece in February: John Velazquez, Edgar Prado, Patrick Valenzuela and Raphael Bejarano.

--- Thoroughbred Report Graded Stakes Awards - February 2006 ---

HORSE OF THE MONTH: HIGH LIMIT

TRAINER OF THE MONTH: Darrell Vienna

JOCKEY OF THE MONTH: Victor Espinoza

2006 Triple Crown Trail - February Recap

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Much like January, February started off with a graded stakes win by BARBARO, followed a week later by an easy win in a non-graded stakes by ACHILLES OF TROY. Both horses were impressive and showed their January success was not a fluke.

February only had three graded stakes for three-year-olds. (March will have eleven!) The mile and one-eighth Holy Bull Stakes (G3) was BARBARO's first attempt at dirt racing and he responded with a victory over a sloppy course at Gulfstream Park. Racing close to the pace early, BARBARO had to work hard to hold on for a 3/4 length victory. Turf? Check. Slop? Check. Fast? We may not find out until the Florida Derby (G1) on April 1st.

Also on the Gulfstream card February 4th was the Hutcheson Stakes (G2) at 7 1/2 furlongs where Pletcher/Velazquez runner KEYED ENTRY held off 2005 Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner FIRST SAMURAI.

At Santa Anita, Baffert trainee TOO MUCH BLING followed up his victory last month in the San Miguel Stakes with a powerful win in the San Vincente Stakes (G2) in very fast time. TOO MUCH BLING is expected to stay sprinting this spring. In non-graded action, Bob Baffert also won the mile and one-eighth Sham Stakes earlier in the month with BOB AND JOHN.

2005 Remsen Stakes (G2) winner BLUEGRASS CAT made his 2006 debut a winning one by setting a new stakes record (1:44) in the mile and a sixteenth Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

At Aqueduct, ACHILLES OF TROY didn't break a sweat winning the mile and a sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes. Also at Aqueduct, LIKE NOW won the six furlong Fred Capossela Stakes.

At Oaklawn Park, LAWYER RON won the Southwest Stakes gate-to-wire, but in very slow time, 1:40 for the mile. Also at Oaklawn Park, URBAN GUY won the six furlong Mountain Valley Stakes.

Elsewhere, WARRIOR WITHIN won the one mile WEBN Stakes at Turfway and SWEETNORTHERNSAINT won the one mile Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park.

Back out west, KEEGAN won the Turf Paradise Derby and, at Sunland Park, INDY WILDCAT, a maiden, won the mile and a sixteenth Borderland Derby.

And finally, CAN'T BEAT IT won the only turf stakes for three-year-olds this month, the mile and a sixteenth Hallandale Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

February was also the start of the annual thinning of the herd. The most significant loss was 2005 Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner STEVIE WONDERBOY to a condylar fracture of the right front foreleg. Early reports indicate that surgery to insert a screw to stabilize the fracture was successful and SW may return to the races later this year. Also lost to injuries were SORCERER'S STONE (ankle), ONE UNION (knee), CINDAGO and HALF OURS.

The three-year-olds in Todd Pletcher's barn have started to shine. KEYED ENTRY won the Hutcheson (G2) at Gulfstream and BLUEGRASS CAT won his 2006 debut in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Bob Baffert also won two stakes for three-year-olds this month at Santa Anita, the Sham and the San Vincente.

John Velazquez was the only jockey to win more than one three-year-old stakes race this month.

--- Thoroughbred Report Triple Crown Trail Awards - February 2006 ---

HORSE OF THE MONTH: BLUEGRASS CAT

TRAINER OF THE MONTH: Todd Pletcher

JOCKEY OF THE MONTH: John Velazquez

January 2006 Graded Stakes Recap

Return to ThoroughbredReport.com

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Classic - Dirt Routes for older males

There were five graded stakes in January in what should be a fascinating division to watch this year. BRASS HAT started things off with an easy victory in the New Orleans Handicap (G2). The 9 furlong race was run for the first (and hopefully last) time at Louisiana Downs due to damage from Hurricane Katrina to Fairgrounds Race Course.

ON THIN ICE won the Hal’s Hope (G3) at Gulfstream Park, also at a mile and one-eighth.

Winner of last year’s Louisiana Derby (G2), HIGH LIMIT looked in top form as a four-year-old with a nose victory over BUCKLAND MANOR in the San Pasqual at a mile and one sixteenth at Santa Anita.

Also at Santa Anita, UNBRIDLED ENERGY won the San Fernando BC Stakes (G2) at a mile and a sixteenth.

The mile and a sixteenth Aqueduct Handicap (G3), conveniently held at Aqueduct Racetrack, was won by HAPPY HUNTING.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Distaff - Dirt Routes for older females

PROPOSED won the only graded stakes race in this division in January - the El Encino Stakes (G2) at a mile and a sixteenth at Santa Anita.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older males

The 5 ½ furlong El Conejo Handicap (G3) at was won by WITH DISTINCTION at Santa Anita.

GAFF was the winner of the 6 furlong Mr. Prospector Handicap (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

The Palos Verdes Handicap (G2), 6 furlongs at Santa Anita, was won by MAJOR SUCCESS.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Sprint – Dirt Sprints for older females

At Gulfstream Park, the 6 furlong First Lady Handicap (G3) was won by SMOKEY GLACKEN.

The first Grade 1 stakes race of the year, the 7 furlong Santa Monica Handicap, was won by BEHAVING BADLY.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/Turf – Turf Routes for older males

BADGE OF SILVER, winner of last year’s New Orleans Handicap (G2) on dirt, took an early lead and held on to win the San Gabriel Handicap (G2).

Eight-year-old THE TIN MAN won the 10 furlong San Marcos Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita.

HOTSTUFANTHENSOME won the 11 furlong Mac Diarmida Handicap (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

Handicap Division – Road to the BC Mile/F&M Turf – Turf Routes for older females

SILVER CUP (IRE) won the 9 furlong San Gorgonia Handicap (G2) at Santa Anita.

The mile and a sixteenth Bayou BC Handicap (G3) was won by SNOWDROPS (GB).

Three-year-olds – Road to the Kentucky Derby

Three-year-olds fillies – Road to the Kentucky Oaks

ITTY BITTY PRETTY won the mile and a sixteenth Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

BAGHDARIA won the Silverbulletday Stakes (G3) at Louisiana Downs at a mile and a sixteenth.

The Santa Ynez Stakes (G2), 7 furlongs at Santa Anita, was won by DANCE DAILY.

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Three trainers won multiple graded stakes races in January. Bobby Frankel lead the way with three (San Gabriel, San Pasqual and Palos Verdes – all at Santa Anita). D. Wayne Lukas (El Conejo, Santa Ynez) and Richard Mandella (San Fernando BC, San Marcos) both won two, also at Santa Anita.

Patrick Valenzuela had a great month of January with four graded stakes winners (BADGE OF SILVER, ITTY BITTY PRETTY, HIGH LIMIT, PROPOSED – all at Santa Anita). Not far behind was Victor Espinoza with three (SILVER CUP, THE TIN MAN, BEHAVING BADLY). Shaun Bridgmohan had a very good day at Gulfstream Park on January 7th with two graded stakes winners (ON THIN ICE, GAFF).

--- Thoroughbred Report Graded Stakes Awards - January 2006 ---

HORSE OF THE MONTH: THE TIN MAN

TRAINER OF THE MONTH: Bobby Frankel

JOCKEY OF THE MONTH: Patrick Valenzuela

2006 Triple Crown Trail - January Recap

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While most trainers are bringing their Derby contenders along slowly in January, one trainer may have found himself a Derby starter on New Year’s Day. Michael Matz trainee BARBARO started off the new year with a bang with a strong turf victory in the mile and one-eighth Tropical Park Derby (G3) at Calder Race Course. While once considered only for the turf, BARBARO has earned the chance to show if he can handle dirt as well.

There were only three other graded stakes for three-year-olds in January. LAWYER RON won the mile and a sixteenth Risen Star (G3) at Louisiana Downs by over 8 lengths for trainer Robert Holtus. BROTHER DEREK held off Breeder’s Cup Juvenile hero STEVIE WONDERBOY to win the San Rafael (G2) at Santa Anita at a mile and CAUSE TO BELIEVE won the mile and a sixteenth El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Bay Meadows over a game OBJECTIVE, winner of the Hill Rise Stakes earlier in the month at Santa Anita.

The best performance of the month may have been in the ungraded Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct. ACHILLES OF TROY covered the one mile and 70 yards in 1:39 3/5 and marked himself the one to watch in New York this spring.

Two trainers had multiple stakes winners this month. Bob Baffert trainees won the San Miguel Stakes (TOO MUCH BLING) and Sunshine Millions Dash (DA STOOPS) at Santa Anita. Since both races were at six furlongs, the winners may not be Kentucky Derby material. Steve Asmussen also saddled two stakes winners with CATONIGHT winning the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Louisiana Downs and DOCTOR DECHERD winning the Aventura Stakes at Gulfstream.

Only one jockey had multiple stakes winners: Garrett Gomez aboard OBJECTIVE in the Hill Rise and TOO MUCH BLING in the San Miguel, both at Santa Anita.

--- Thoroughbred Report Triple Crown Trail Awards - January 2006 ---

HORSE OF THE MONTH: ACHILLES OF TROY

TRAINER OF THE MONTH: Bob Baffert

JOCKEY OF THE MONTH: Garrett Gomez

(A)Fleet of Foot Indeed

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Fleet: Moving swiftly; rapid or nimble.

While certainly meeting all of the traditional requirements for being fleet, it is for the 'nimble' part of the definition that Afleet Alex's Preakness Stakes will be remembered.

Coming around the final turn, jockey Jeremy Rose fired Afleet Alex into an emerging hole and rode a rocket out into the stretch. Gaining rapidly on Scrappy T, Afleet Alex was preparing to engage that horse on the outside. Engage is not strong enough. Afleet Alex was about to blow the doors off Scrappy T.

Jockey Ramon Dominguez, aboard Scrappy T, had just taken the lead in the race and could sense the finish line less than a quarter of a mile away. He could also sense his charge losing interest in the race after having attained the lead. Dominguez fired a sharp smack of the whip on Scrappy T's left hip. Instead of the desired effect of spurring the horse on, Scrappy T reacted like he had just been stung by world's largest bee. Seemingly turning around to look for what had just bitten him, Scrappy T veered sharply to the right just as Afleet Alex was about to come abreast.

That disaster was averted seems a miracle. Afleet Alex clipped heels with Scrappy T and stumbled badly. Both horses and their riders could have easily fallen at the top of the stretch with a dozen other horses and riders about to decend upon them. It could have been horrific.

But it wasn't. Instead, it was amazing. We saw an incredible equine athlete running at peak velocity suddenly tripped and nearly knocked to his knees. His nose just inches from the ground, he pulled himself back to his feet and proceeded to take off running again like nothing had happened. Cutting now to the inside of Scrappy T, Afleet Alex cruised past him with ease and moved on to a nearly five length victory.

Not to be overlooked is the ride by Afleet Alex’s jockey Jeremy Rose. Breaking from post position 12, Rose made a quick left just after the start and moved Afleet Alex all the way to the two path, saving a ton of ground around the first turn. On the backstretch, Rose maneuvered to the rail to save even more ground around the second turn. Waiting patiently behind Greeley’s Galaxy on the far turn, Rose was briefly in danger of being trapped behind slowing horses when he saw an opening to the outside. He hit the gas and Afleet Alex responded. Moving quickly outside the slowing leaders, Rose had his sights set on Scrappy T. As he approached the leader, Scrappy T suddenly veered sharply to the right, under the nose of his horse. As amazing a feat as it was for the horse to keep from falling, it may be more impressive that the jockey was able to stay aboard. Jockeys don’t actually sit on the back of racehorses, they balance on the stirrups. All it takes is a quick change of direction or momentum for a jockey to be tossed to the ground. Grabbing on to the horse’s mane, Rose was not only able to stay aloft but to help Afleet Alex to quickly regain his stride and momentum.

Rose has been aboard Afleet Alex for all of his starts but one. JR Velazquez picked up the ride for the Rebel in March and might have kept the horse if he didn't have other obligations on the day of the Arkansas Derby. Owners and trainers of top horses are always tempted to switch to a big name jockey. The connections of Afleet Alex should be very glad they stuck with Jeremy Rose. The horse could not have gotten a better ride.

After the Derby, I was very disappointed in Afleet Alex's performance. He was in a perfect position to win that race but came up short in a very slow time. Clearly, he did not fire in Kentucky like he did in Maryland. Looking back, a third place finish in the Derby when he wasn't at his best is not too bad. What is also clear now is that Afleet Alex is a very good horse. Track announcer Tom Durkin said it best as Afleet Alex crossed the finish line: “Afleet Alex…Awesome!” I couldn’t agree more.

2005 Preakness Analysis

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Two weeks after The Race Which Will Remain Nameless and it's time to give it another try. This time things will be different. Hopefully, less different than last time. This time, let's see if we can have a legitimate horse race. Something along the lines of reasonable speed up front, pressers getting a good position just off the speed, closers who actually close and more horses moving forward down the stretch than backwards! Wouldn't that be nice?

There will still be some speed this time, but not the same sort of speed we saw in the Derby. There will be no reason for the good horses to chase this time. Hal's Image, Galloping Grocer, High Limit and Going Wild can all be expected to break well and move to the lead. There is no reason to chase them. The horses with the best chance to win will be sitting in the next group: High Fly, Greeley's Galaxy and Scrappy T. I expect two of the front four to disappear quickly and the remaining two, probably High Limit and Going Wild, to falter entering the far turn. At that point High Fly and Scrappy T should become the leaders, with Greeley's Galaxy and Closing Argument not far behind, and I expect them to continue on in this order.

What of Afleet Alex and Giacomo?

I'm taking a position against Afleet Alex. If he was anywhere near as good as advertised he should have won the Derby. He was able to rate off the suicidal speed, found a path through the crowd without too much trouble and, mid-stretch, had the roses right in front of him for the taking. Instead of seizing the opportunity he staggered home third. To me, his performance was the most disappointing because the race was handed to him on a silver platter and he was not able to take advantage.

I don't expect Giacomo to drop as far back this time. He should be able to settle midpack and be in a position to move forward coming into the stretch. This time, however, he will have to drive down the lane to catch anyone and I don't see that happening. The leaders will not be coming back this time and Giacomo doesn't posess the closing kick necessary to run down good horses that are still running.

The pick: High Fly

Exotics: Use High Fly 1st and 2nd with Scrappy T and Greeley's Galaxy over Afleet Alex, Closing Argument and Giacomo.

2 with 4,5 with 4,5,7,12,13 = $8

4,5 with 2 with 4,5,7,12,13 = $8

Let's hope for a return to sanity (and the cashier's window).

Good luck!

All Hail...Giacomo?

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One thing became certain as Giacomo crossed the finish line to win the 131st Kentucky Derby. There will be a full field of 20 runners in the 132nd Kentucky Derby and for years to come.

Next spring, when owners and trainers are asked why they are running their seemingly hopelessly overmatched horse in the Derby, they will have a ready reply. "Well, just look at Giacomo in 2005. If he can win..." And do you know what? They'll be right. This year's Derby made it clear that the race can be a huge crapshoot. Twenty lightly raced three-year-olds running farther than they've ever raced before is a recipe for chaos. It may not be a case of 'anyone can win', but you would be hard-pressed to prove otherwise.

Most years, horseplayers can look at the Derby result and, in retrospect, find something they overlooked or undervalued in the winner. Smarty Jones was only a lukewarm favorite at 4-1 in 2004. Many horseplayers figured his Oaklawn wins were against weak competition and that his speed numbers were inflated. After the race, everyone knew his Oaklawn wins were truely representatative of his ability and Smarty had a full bandwagon for the Preakness.

In 2003 and 2002, both Funny Cide and War Emblem were hardly favorites. However, both had run very strong races in their last preps and earned excellent speed figures. Looking back, it was easy to kick yourself for not taking advantage of the generous prices.

What about this year? It's a little harder to make a case for Giacomo, even with the benefit of hindsight. There are no flashy speed figures that were underappreciated. No big wins over supposedly weak fields. Just a well-bred horse with good connections who ran only decently in the poorly regarded West Coast prep races.

So, who is Giacomo and how did he win?

Giacomo had every right to be a good horse coming in to this year. A son of 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull, he finished his two-year-old season with an excellent second place finish to eventual Eclipse Award winner Declan's Moon. A nose behind was 2004 Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner Wilko. That's pretty good company and expectations should have been high for his three-year-old season.

Unfortunately, Giacomo's three-year-old campaign has been less than inspiring. Debuting as the favorite in the ungraded Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, Giacomo finished third behind Going Wild. Although he raced wide the whole race, he was only a couple of lengths off the lead and finished only a length and a quarter behind the winner. A week later, his odds in the Kentucky Derby Future Pool 1 were 25-1. Not bad. About middle of the pack.

His next race was the Grade 2 San Felipe. Giacomo again ran third most of the way, a couple of lengths off the leader, and ended up in second, six and half lengths behind Consolidator. Not bad, but nothing special.

His final prep was the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. This time Giacomo raced a little further off the pace before sweeping four-wide into the stretch to finish in fourth, just a couple of lengths behind two longshots and Wilko. Once again, nothing to get excited about.

So, how did he win?

What is interesting, in looking at these three races, is that Giacomo, unlike many of the more highly regarded contenders for the Kentucky Derby, was showing an ability to race off the pace. That may just be a nice way of saying he wasn't fast enough to challenge for the lead in these races, but in any case this trait would be to his benefit in a Derby loaded with fast front runners.

What he wasn't showing in these races, again unlike the Derby favorites, was the ability to win.

Flash forward to the 131st running of the Kentucky Derby. Breaking behind most of the field, Giacomo was content to spend the first half of the race at the back of the pack. Up front, the leaders were firing off quick fractions over the lightning fast track. Designated rabbit Spanish Chestnut was leading, but just over a length behind was a tightly pack group of runners consisting of Flower Alley, High Fly, Going Wild and the favorite, Bellamy Road. Fifteen lengths behind was Giacomo, still in 18th place. The first three quarters went in 22.28, 23.10 and 24.21, but things were about to change. The next quarter went in 26.29 as Bellamy Road and High Fly edged past the tiring Spanish Chestnut. Unfortunately for them, they were being hotly pressed by longshot Closing Argument, second favorite Afleet Alex and, seven-wide, another longshot, Santa Anita winner Buzzard's Bay. By this point the leaders had little left themselves. Behind them, Giacomo had run the fourth quarter in 24.54, gaining nearly 9 lengths and had moved up to 11th, only six and a qua