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I'm going to bet against favorites Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron. If either of them are involved at the end, I'll lose all of my bets. If they can't cope with the early pace and fall out of it, I have hopes of making some money.
These are the primary horses I will use to build various tickets:
#11 SWEETNORTHERNSAINT
#7 BOB AND JOHN
#8 BARBARO
#5 POINT DETERMINED
These horses will be used to fill the bottom of triples and supers:
#16 CAUSE TO BELIEVE
#19 STORM TREASURE
#14 DEPUTY GLITTERS
I'll build my tickets based on two different scenarios:
1) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT is as good as I think
Exactas: 11 with 5,7,8 for $2 = $6
Tri Key: 11 with 5,7,8 for $1 = $6
Tri Key: 11 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 for $1 = $30
Super: 11 with 5,7,8 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 for $1 = $60
2) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT is a factor, but doesn't win
Exactas: Box 5,7,8,11 for $2 = $24
Triples: 5,7,8 with 11 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 for $1 = $15
5,7,8 with 5,7,8,14,16,19 with 11 for $1 = $15
Super: 5,7,8 with 5,7,8 with 5,7,8,11,16 with 5,7,8,11,16,19 for $1 = $54
Good luck and have a great Derby Day!