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Barbaro wins the 132nd Kentucky Derby
You have to wonder when Michael Matz first realized he had a Kentucky Derby horse in Barbaro.
Certainly not last fall. Barbaro broke his maiden at first asking in a mile turf race at Delaware and came back six weeks later to win the Laurel Futurity at a mile and a sixteenth, also on the turf. Matz surely knew he had a good horse, but clearly wasn't thinking Kentucky Derby when he sent Barbaro out on New Year's Day to win the mile and one eighth Tropical Park Derby (G3) at Calder.
The light bulb must have been flickering to life by now. Perhaps jockey Edgar Prado mentioned something in the Winner's Circle after the Tropical Park Derby, "Um, Michael? This turf thing is going swell, he seems unbeatable on the grass, but don't you wonder if maybe he is unbeatable on dirt, too?" Or not.
In any case, Matz got the message. Barbaro was officially redirected to the Kentucky Derby Trail. Although Matz was willing to try Barbaro on the dirt, I'm guessing it wasn't until after Barbaro won the nine furlong Holy Bull Stakes (G3) in the slop at Gulfstream that he truly believed he had a Derby horse.
After the Holy Bull, Matz developed a plan. He would spend the next two months training Barbaro for dirt racing and the rigors of the Triple Crown trail, run one final prep in the Florida Derby (G1) and then go straight to the Kentucky Derby five weeks later.
The plan wasn't well received. "One race in thirteen weeks isn't enough." "No horse has won the Derby off a five week layoff in 50 years!" "He's a turf horse." "He barely beat Sharp Humor in the Florida Derby."
Turns out, Matz knew what he was doing. Barbaro was fit, sharp and thoroughly dominated the 132nd Kentucky Derby. Despite a stumble at the start, and some bumping early on, Barbaro's favorable post position and natural early speed enabled him to secure a comfortable position just behind the leaders. From this prime location, Barbaro had first jump on the tiring leaders on the far turn, moved quickly to the lead, and sprinted away to a six and one half length victory.
Top contenders not so lucky
Race favorite Sweetnorthernsaint was bumped at the start and had to steady more than once in the first quarter mile, but did show great determination by making a strong move to rally from twelfth to third, over a dead rail path, before tiring in the stretch to finish seventh.
Morning line favorite Brother Derek was doomed from the moment he was stuck with post eighteen at the position draw on Wednesday. Despite travelling very wide the whole race, and dropping back as far as fourteenth, Brother Derek was able to make a run in the stretch to finish in a dead heat for fourth.
Other runners of note
Barbaro's stalking position was so good that even the horse following him was able to benefit. Bluegrass Cat woke up at 30-1 to finish second by following Barbaro all of the way around the track.
Steppenwolfer and Jazil both ran as advertised. Dropping back early and making one big run late enabled them to finish third and in a dead heat for fourth, respectively.
Lightly raced Showing Up, stablemate of Barbaro, ran side-by-side with the eventual winner for three-quarters of a mile before tiring in the stretch to finish sixth.
Early speed fails again
As I discussed in the Kentucky Derby Preview, horses with a BRIS running style of E, for Early, and runners whose Early Pace (EP) rating from their last prep exceeded the Early Pace par for the Kentucky Derby, did very poorly in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. The 2006 results were very similar:
In 2005, there were four E-Type runners; they finished 7th, 16th, 18th, 20th.
In 2006, there were also four E-Type runners: Brother Derek (finished 4th-DH), Sinister Minister (16th), Sharp Humor (19th), Keyed Entry (20th)
In 2005, there were seven Non-E-Type runners with last race EP greater than the Kentucky Derby EP par; they finished 2nd, 10th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 17th, 19th.
In 2006, there were four Non-E-Type runners with last race EP greater than the Kentucky Derby EP par: Deputy Glitters (finished 8th), Lawyer Ron (12th), Private Vow (15th), Bob and John (17th).
I'm not sure how much to make of this yet, but I will be discounting horses with these running styles next year if the field is similarly composed.
Posted by Greg Brandow at May 7, 2006 07:00 AM