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If you've climbed on the Barbaro bandwagon, be careful. His morning line odds of even money are not close to representing his real chances of winning, which are about 5-2.
Yes, Barbaro looked great winning the Kentucky Derby. He may indeed be a great horse. In fact, he may even be a super horse and win the Triple Crown. However, before that can happen, he has some serious problems to deal with on Saturday and their names are Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek.
Barbaro had a dream trip in the Kentucky Derby. After some bumps early, he was quickly able to find a spot sitting just behind the race leaders. It was a comfortable, unpressured position that didn't cost him much ground around the turns and let him bide his time before cruising past the tiring leaders on the final turn and drawing away with ease.
The horses Barbaro will have to beat in the Preakness were not so lucky in the Derby. If either Sweetnorthernsaint or Brother Derek had been able to get Barbaro's dream position behind the leaders in the Derby, they would have had an equally good chance of winning the race. Instead, they had troubled trips that left them in unfamiliar, and unfavorable, positions that took too much energy out of them and left them with too much to do in the stretch to have an impact on the race results.
The Preakness should be a much more fair competition. With only nine horses, there really are no poor post positions and traffic problems will not be as significant. All three of the main contenders should be able to position themselves near where they want to run and the best horse should end up finishing first.
How the race will run
Not that there was much doubt, but with Like Now breaking from the one hole he is commited to getting the early lead. Running next to him will be Brother Derek and possibly Bernardini and/or Diabolical from the far outside. Barbaro will move to the rail behind Like Now and Sweetnorthernsaint should be just to his outside, behind Brother Derek.
Much will depend on how fiercely the front runners battle for the lead. If Like Now and Brother Derek are able to slow down the pace and conserve their energy, Brother Derek could be hard to catch as they turn for home. I don't expect that to happen. The pace should be hot and leave the front runners vulnerable by the time they reach the top of the stretch. At that point both Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint will pounce and I expect they will both fill the exacta at the wire. I will give the edge to Sweetnorthernsaint due to his stronger finishing kick and better price.
Preakness Wager
$40 Win on #7 Sweetnorthernsaint
$40 Exacta 7-6 (Sweetnorthernsaint over Barbaro)
$20 Exacta 6-7
$2 Exacta 7 over All = $16
$5 Triple Key 7 with 6 with 1,4,5,8 = $20
$1 Triple Key 7 with 6 with All = $7
$1 Triple Key 6 with 7 with All = $7
$1 Super Key 7 with 6 with All with All = $42
$1 Super Key 6 with 7 with 1,4,5,8 with All = $24
Total Wager: $216
Posted by Greg Brandow at May 19, 2006 10:00 PM