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My first instinct is that no one can win this race. That's what happens when the Kentucky Derby winner (BARBARO) is standing in a stall in Pennsylvania wearing a cast, the winner of a messed up Preakness Stakes (BERNARDIN) opts for a vacation and top contenders heading into the Derby like SWEETNORTHERNSAINT and BROTHER DEREK head to the sidelines after a tough Triple Crown Trail.
Obviously, someone will win the 138th running of the Belmont Stakes. Will it be a horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness, or a fresh runner?
Let's see if we can figure it out.
Of the Triple Crown veterans, Kentucky Derby runner-up BLUEGRASS CAT has to be considered the most likely threat in the Belmont Stakes. After two sub-par performances, BLUEGRASS CAT benefited from a perfect trip behind BARBARO but was clearly no match for the winner. Without as much early speed in the Belmont, he will have to do much of the heavy lifting himself if he is to improve on his Derby finish.
A couple of lengths behind BLUEGRASS CAT in the Derby, STEPPENWOLFER and JAZIL closed well from far back to get up for third and a dead-heat for fourth. The popular opinion is that since the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one half race, deep closers will have more time to catch the leaders in the long Belmont Park stretch. Unfortunately for STEPPENWOLFER and JAZIL, that's not how this race is won. Both horses will have a good shot at being part of the superfecta, but the winner of the race will be racing much closer to the pace and will have the lead early in the stretch.
The eighth-place finisher in the Derby, DEPUTY GLITTERS, holds the distinction of beating BLUEGRASS CAT in the Tampa Bay Derby. [PHOTOS] Although DEPUTY GLITTERS pre-Derby running style suits this race, he will need to run back to his Tampa Bay Derby victory and take the race to BLUEGRASS CAT to have any chance. If the track comes up wet, he will have no chance and will probably scratch.
BOB AND JOHN, 17th place finisher in the Derby, also has a favorable running style for the Belmont Stakes. The winner of the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, over a sloppy track, BOB AND JOHN will have to duplicate that effort and run an additional three furlongs. Given how slow he finished in the Wood, the added distance may be too much.
The two horses coming out of the Preakness Stakes, HEMINGWAY'S KEY and PLATINUM COUPLE seem hopelessly overmatched and should not have an impact.
That leaves the newcomers to the Triple Crown to consider. The best of the bunch is clearly the Peter Pan (G2) winner SUNRIVER, trained by Todd Pletcher. Expect him to settle mid-pack and try to get the first shot at the leaders on the final turn.
HIGH FINANCE has only a maiden and allowance (N1X) victory to his credit, but will be the likely front runner early on and will try to steal the race on the lead.
SACRED LIGHT spent the spring chasing BROTHER DEREK and BOB AND JOHN in stakes races to no avail and lost to NOLAN'S CAT in an allowance race on Derby Day.
OH SO AWESOME spent his spring in Europe running on soggy turf courses. Although bred to handle the distance and purchased privately with this race in mind, he would need to improve dramatically on his third place finish in a minor stakes over this Belmont surface to have any impact on the superfecta.
That leaves DOUBLE GALORE who finally was able to break his maiden last time out at Hollywood Park. He should have stayed in California.
Contenders to win the Belmont Stakes
BLUEGRASS CAT
DEPUTY GLITTERS
SUNRIVER
Likely to complete Triple/Super
JAZIL
STEPPENWOLFER